4400 Gateway Rd #38 · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$60,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured · 78 Days on market

Built 1962 Good condition ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This sweet inviting two-bedroom, one-bathroom mobile home is the perfect blend of cozy and comfort living year-round. It is updated and includes a beautifully refreshed interior to include its lovely kitchen, and this home is move in ready. The home features a newly installed heat/ac split to maximize climate control and keeping you comfortable at the same time. In addition, it is situated on a nice size space and yard to enjoy and relax in throughout the year.

Key facts

• Yard to enjoy
• Refreshed interior
• Lovely kitchen

Tags

• REFRESHED INTERIOR
• LOVELY KITCHEN
• NEWLY INSTALLED HEAT AC SPLIT
• NICE SIZE SPACE
• YARD TO ENJOY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed: cats and dogs (size limit, upon approval); Located in Flamingo Mobile park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Mobile home (single wide)
• Construction: 500 square feet living area
• Exterior features: Back yard; Side yard; Yard space; Porch; Awnings

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range / oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Has heating
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 47.2% vs local median 2.9% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $56,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 47.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 146.07%
• DSCR: 7.50
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.70×
• Total profit: $162,973
• Equity at exit: $54,053

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.48×
• Total profit: $377,596
• Equity at exit: $116,567

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,114 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $2,045

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $60,000
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,989
• − Management: −$2,989
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $25,078
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,019
• After-tax cash flow: $18,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in good condition with updated interiors and systems, offering a great opportunity for a buyer or investor.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale upgrading appliances — modernizes the kitchen and attracts buyers
• Both painting exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale upgrading appliances — modernizes the kitchen and attracts buyers ↑
• Both painting exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $60,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-01 Listed $70,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR