103 11th St SE · Winter Haven, FL 33880

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1950 0.54 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lake Views, Space to Spread Out, and Major Updates Already Done! Nestled on over half an acre with fully fenced back yard, this charming home offers a rare combination of privacy, flexibility, and scenic surroundings as it's situated between Lake Elbert and Lake Otis, both visible from the large front yard. Sit on the lovely front porch, relax in the swing out back, or in the oversized screen breezeway with peace of mind from the recent improvements. New roof and electric panel installed in 2023, as well as a newer water heater and ac/heat pump w/ 10 year warranty. While on public utilities, the home does have a well for irrigation (seller is obeying current water restrictions but hopeful t

Key facts

• New electric panel
• Newer water heater
• New roof

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACK YARD
• OVERSIZED SCREEN BREEZEWAY
• NEW ROOF
• NEW ELECTRIC PANEL
• NEWER WATER HEATER
• AC HEAT PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on approximately 0.54-acre lot
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Storage; Irrigation equipment; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 146 x 161

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Solid wood cabinets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fred G. Garner Elementary School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 901 students, 62% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $225k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,373 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-26,979
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-14,378
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,146/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,733

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $230	+0% $166	+5% $103	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $90	+0% $166	+5% $243	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $224	base $166	+0.5pp $108	+1.0pp $49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
611 Avenue G SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,299	$1.48	4d	1	0.63mi
609 Avenue G SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,399	$1.60	25d	1	0.63mi
407 Avenue A SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,700	$1.51	25d	1	0.69mi
103 4th St SE Unit A Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,399	$1.38	4d	1	0.70mi
332 Avenue D SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,800	$1.65	4d	1	0.81mi
513 Avenue J SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,350	$1.54	16d	1	0.83mi
904 15th St NE Unit 1520445P Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1732	$4,909	$2.83	4d	1	0.84mi
1743 Avenue C NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1016	$1,595	$1.57	4d	1	0.90mi
1200 6th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,585	$1.29	16d	1	0.96mi
601 2nd St SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,195	$1.11	4d	1	0.96mi
403 Avenue J SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	25d	1	0.96mi
1331 11th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,190	$1.82	25d	1	0.97mi
106 Avenue D SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,600	$1.74	4d	1	1.04mi
1500 Grey Eagle Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,050	$1.11	16d	1	1.05mi
850 17th Ter NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1206	$1,520	$1.26	4d	1	1.10mi
1581 Lemon Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,176	$1.19	22d	1	1.10mi
240 2nd St SW #201 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1241	$1,725	$1.39	25d	1	1.10mi
200 Avenue C SW Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,950	$2.29	4d	12	1.13mi
251 Krenson Bay Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,250	$1.22	25d	1	1.13mi
2429 Twin Lake View Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,350	$1.26	16d	1	1.13mi
1550 11th St NE Unit G3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,325	$1.15	16d	1	1.14mi
300 Royal Palm Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,300	$1.28	25d	1	1.15mi
200 Avenue K SE Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$1,735	$1.58	4d	45	1.17mi
217 Newcastle Ct Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,375	$1.33	25d	1	1.19mi
137 Woodland Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,000	$1.44	25d	1	1.19mi
265 East St Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$2,250	$2.97	4d	41	1.22mi
330 Royal Palm Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,400	$1.34	25d	1	1.23mi
207 S Lake Silver Dr NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,399	$1.25	25d	1	1.23mi
919 S AVE SE Unit 1325030P Eloise, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,954	$1.72	4d	1	1.33mi
1225 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,890	$1.16	4d	1	1.34mi
1225 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,940	$1.19	16d	1	1.34mi
1314 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,940	$1.19	16d	1	1.34mi
1314 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,890	$1.16	4d	1	1.34mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 101 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	25d	1	1.50mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 102 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	25d	1	1.50mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 203 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	4d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $225,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-10
   listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,146 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$722/yr (+$60/mo · 63.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,146
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,827
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$438
• After-tax cash flow: $2,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+158.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $87,011 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,146 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.