433 Breckenridge St · Buffalo, NY 14213

$369,000

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,051 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1890 2,850 sqft lot $180/sqft · at area comps Est $367k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pride of ownership lives here. .. lovely 4 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath Victorian has been totally transformed. As you enter up the front steps to amazing front porch with custom railings & newer roof you will be impressed. Stunning architectural details with elegant grand staircase & 2 gorgeous leaded glass windows. Beautiful hardwood floors in formal dining room & massive light-filled living room with art deco tile & reclaimed wood feature gas fireplace. Updated kitchen with new scraped hardwood floors & pantry. Adorable new 1/2 bath on first floor. Master bedroom with AMAZING CUSTOM CLOSET!! Private backyard with lavender garden for outside dinner parties. Exterior painted recently, new furnace 2017, HWT 2015, some new electric & windows. Walking distance to all the great city eateries & events!

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Leaded glass windows
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WALKING DISTANCE TO EATERIES
• GRAND WOOD PANELED STAIRCASE
• LEADED GLASS WINDOWS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GAS FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2 stories; Existing construction
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,569/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $256,854 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,087
• List price: $369,000
• Delta: 0.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71 Hoyt St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,160 (+5%)	2mo	$190,000	$88	78
36 Lawrence Pl	0.35mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,089 (+2%)	5mo	$295,000	$141	72
699 Richmond Ave	0.46mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,080 (+1%)	2mo	$470,000	$226	70
264 Highland Ave	0.36mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,972 (-4%)	6mo	$280,000	$142	67
295 Hoyt St	0.48mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,978 (-4%)	1mo	$350,000	$177	66
555 W Ferry St	0.29mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,226 (+8%)	4mo	$529,000	$238	64
139 Dorchester Rd	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,003 (-2%)	5mo	$681,000	$340	61
254 Hoyt St	0.41mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,866 (-9%)	4mo	$403,000	$216	57
704 Auburn Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,184 (+6%)	2mo	$580,000	$266	54
341 Bird Ave	0.63mi	5/2.0	1,900 (-7%)	6mo	$237,000	$125	51
750 Richmond Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,228 (+9%)	5mo	$530,000	$238	50
288 Baynes St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,289 (+12%)	6mo	$500,000	$218	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.51% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $124,005
• Equity at exit: $268,179

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $352,099
• Equity at exit: $521,137

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14213

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,744

Max offer price $344,457

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $-34	+0% $-139	+5% $-243	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-240	+0% $-139	+5% $-37	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $-45	base $-139	+0.5pp $-235	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Hoyt St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2848	$1,775	$0.62	16d	1	0.09mi
40 Putnam St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	25d	1	0.10mi
836 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.5	1982	$4,500	$2.27	45d	1	0.68mi
184 14th St Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1950	$4,400	$2.26	25d	1	0.77mi
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$2,560	$1.96	3d	14	0.91mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $369,000 Active 909-char remark
2. 2018-09-27
   soldstatus $265,000 Closed Sale or Rented 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   Pride of ownership lives here. .. lovely 4 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath Victorian has been totally transformed. As you enter up the front steps to amazing front porch with custom railings & newer roof you will be impressed. Stunning architectural details with elegant grand staircase & 2 gorgeous leaded glass windows. Beautiful hardwood floors in formal dining room & massive light-filled living room with art deco tile & reclaimed wood feature gas fireplace. Updated kitchen with new scraped hardwood floors & pantry. Adorable new 1/2 bath on first floor. Master bedroom with AMAZING CUSTOM CLOSET!! Private backyard with lavender garden for outside dinner parties. Exterior painted recently, new furnace 2017, HWT 2015, some new electric & windows. Walking distance to all the great city eateries & events!

3. 2018-09-27
   soldstatus $265,100

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   Pride of ownership lives here. .. lovely 4 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath Victorian has been totally transformed. As you enter up the front steps to amazing front porch with custom railings & newer roof you will be impressed. Stunning architectural details with elegant grand staircase & 2 gorgeous leaded glass windows. Beautiful hardwood floors in formal dining room & massive light-filled living room with art deco tile & reclaimed wood feature gas fireplace. Updated kitchen with new scraped hardwood floors & pantry. Adorable new 1/2 bath on first floor. Master bedroom with AMAZING CUSTOM CLOSET!! Private backyard with lavender garden for outside dinner parties. Exterior painted recently, new furnace 2017, HWT 2015, some new electric & windows. Walking distance to all the great city eateries & events!

4. 2018-08-02
   status Pending Sale 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   Pride of ownership lives here. .. lovely 4 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath Victorian has been totally transformed. As you enter up the front steps to amazing front porch with custom railings & newer roof you will be impressed. Stunning architectural details with elegant grand staircase & 2 gorgeous leaded glass windows. Beautiful hardwood floors in formal dining room & massive light-filled living room with art deco tile & reclaimed wood feature gas fireplace. Updated kitchen with new scraped hardwood floors & pantry. Adorable new 1/2 bath on first floor. Master bedroom with AMAZING CUSTOM CLOSET!! Private backyard with lavender garden for outside dinner parties. Exterior painted recently, new furnace 2017, HWT 2015, some new electric & windows. Walking distance to all the great city eateries & events!

5. 2018-06-27
   listed $299,000 Active 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   Pride of ownership lives here. .. lovely 4 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath Victorian has been totally transformed. As you enter up the front steps to amazing front porch with custom railings & newer roof you will be impressed. Stunning architectural details with elegant grand staircase & 2 gorgeous leaded glass windows. Beautiful hardwood floors in formal dining room & massive light-filled living room with art deco tile & reclaimed wood feature gas fireplace. Updated kitchen with new scraped hardwood floors & pantry. Adorable new 1/2 bath on first floor. Master bedroom with AMAZING CUSTOM CLOSET!! Private backyard with lavender garden for outside dinner parties. Exterior painted recently, new furnace 2017, HWT 2015, some new electric & windows. Walking distance to all the great city eateries & events!

6. 2009-05-07
   soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,594 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,643/yr (+$220/mo · 277.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,466
• − Management: −$2,466
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$8,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,994
• After-tax cash flow: $327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,107
• Household income: $53,870
• Rent vs Own: 60.5% rent · 39.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1501.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 18% Asian 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Current HPI: 448.4879
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+495.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $369,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $265,100 Public Records
• 2018-09-27 Sold (MLS) $265,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-08-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-06-27 Listed $299,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · -9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.