5407 Meadow Walk Dr · Haines City, FL 33837

$379,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,326 sqft · Land · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This two-story Georgia will definitely be on your mind… This beauty highlights a modern open layout, seamlessly integrating a first-floor kitchen with a central island, a dining room and a welcoming family room with patio access. On the same level is a private owner's suite with an attached bathroom. Situated upstairs is a versatile loft for additional shared living space and four secondary bedrooms to provide restful retreats to family members and guests alike. Wynnstone is a lovely family friendly community of new single-family homes located in Davenport, FL. This amenity-rich community will include: Pool, Clubhouse, Gazebo, Playgroun

Key facts

• Central island
• Attached bathroom
• First floor kitchen

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT
• AMENITY RICH COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-393 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bella Citta (940 students, 35% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1396 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $289,442 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-95,038
• Equity at exit: $56,658

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-147,493
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1396
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,894 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,700/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $-393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,392

Max offer price $323,060

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-262	+0% $-393	+5% $-525	+10% $-656
Rent	-10% $-622	-5% $-508	+0% $-393	+5% $-279	+10% $-165
Rate	-1.0pp $-202	-0.5pp $-297	base $-393	+0.5pp $-492	+1.0pp $-592

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,998
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5423 Meadow Walk Dr Unit Na Davenport, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$3,150	$1.28	25d	1	0.01mi
402 Sunset View Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1825	$2,365	$1.30	16d	1	0.43mi
915 Knollwood Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1863	$2,400	$1.29	25d	1	0.47mi
3676 Rolling Ridge Bnd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	21d	1	0.60mi
635 Knollwood Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1863	$2,500	$1.34	5d	1	0.61mi
456 Knollwood Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1762	$2,500	$1.42	23d	1	0.65mi
188 Holly Village Dr Unit 188 Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1620	$2,000	$1.23	5d	1	0.84mi
211 Boydfield Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1877	$2,150	$1.15	5d	1	0.91mi
171 Boydfield Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1877	$2,300	$1.23	5d	1	0.97mi
2732 Gentle Rain Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	2120	$2,800	$1.32	25d	1	1.04mi
3294 Partington Blvd Unit 3294 Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,150	$1.29	5d	1	1.04mi
687 Park Place Blvd Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,399	$0.98	25d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $379,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,285
• − Property taxes: −$5,700
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,779
• − Management: −$2,779
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$11,054
• Taxable loss: −$11,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,739
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $379,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid