108 County Road 4012 · Old River-Winfree, TX 77535

$170,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1989 0.96 ac lot Est $268k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well built 4 bedroom home, with a rustic charm on almost 1 acre (. 96 acre)! Master bedroom is downstairs, and additional 3 bedrooms and gameroom are upstairs. House has large utility/mud room. Outside there is a large workshop (14x30), gazebo (16x20), Fab shop area (8x12), and open air workspace (12x24). There is a RV hook up, and the fab shop space has an AC hookup for welding machine. Come see all that this property has to offer! Call today!

Key facts

• 0.96 acre lot
• Built 1989
• Listed 30 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.8% in Old River-Winfree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1234 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.64%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,096
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 County Road 4012	0.00mi	5/2.0	2,272 (0%)	0mo	$170,000	$75	96
1104 County Road 401	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,963 (-14%)	17mo	$365,000	$186	47
383 County Road 4017	0.69mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,128 (-6%)	12mo	$252,000	$118	42
367 County Road 4017	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,128 (-6%)	23mo	$220,000	$103	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,163
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $18,056
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1234
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,402/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,577

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $351	+0% $303	+5% $255	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $148	-5% $226	+0% $303	+5% $381	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $346	base $303	+0.5pp $259	+1.0pp $214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-02
   listed $170,000 Active
4. 2015-09-18
   historical 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Well built 4 bedroom home, with a rustic charm on almost 1 acre (. 96 acre)! Master bedroom is downstairs, and additional 3 bedrooms and gameroom are upstairs. House has large utility/mud room. Outside there is a large workshop (14x30), gazebo (16x20), Fab shop area (8x12), and open air workspace (12x24). There is a RV hook up, and the fab shop space has an AC hookup for welding machine. Come see all that this property has to offer! Call today!

5. 2015-09-18
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Well built 4 bedroom home, with a rustic charm on almost 1 acre (. 96 acre)! Master bedroom is downstairs, and additional 3 bedrooms and gameroom are upstairs. House has large utility/mud room. Outside there is a large workshop (14x30), gazebo (16x20), Fab shop area (8x12), and open air workspace (12x24). There is a RV hook up, and the fab shop space has an AC hookup for welding machine. Come see all that this property has to offer! Call today!

6. 2015-09-17
   status Pending 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Well built 4 bedroom home, with a rustic charm on almost 1 acre (. 96 acre)! Master bedroom is downstairs, and additional 3 bedrooms and gameroom are upstairs. House has large utility/mud room. Outside there is a large workshop (14x30), gazebo (16x20), Fab shop area (8x12), and open air workspace (12x24). There is a RV hook up, and the fab shop space has an AC hookup for welding machine. Come see all that this property has to offer! Call today!

7. 2015-09-16
   soldstatus Sold 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Well built 4 bedroom home, with a rustic charm on almost 1 acre (. 96 acre)! Master bedroom is downstairs, and additional 3 bedrooms and gameroom are upstairs. House has large utility/mud room. Outside there is a large workshop (14x30), gazebo (16x20), Fab shop area (8x12), and open air workspace (12x24). There is a RV hook up, and the fab shop space has an AC hookup for welding machine. Come see all that this property has to offer! Call today!

8. 2015-08-16
   status Option Pending 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Well built 4 bedroom home, with a rustic charm on almost 1 acre (. 96 acre)! Master bedroom is downstairs, and additional 3 bedrooms and gameroom are upstairs. House has large utility/mud room. Outside there is a large workshop (14x30), gazebo (16x20), Fab shop area (8x12), and open air workspace (12x24). There is a RV hook up, and the fab shop space has an AC hookup for welding machine. Come see all that this property has to offer! Call today!

9. 2015-08-11
   listed $125,000 Active 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Well built 4 bedroom home, with a rustic charm on almost 1 acre (. 96 acre)! Master bedroom is downstairs, and additional 3 bedrooms and gameroom are upstairs. House has large utility/mud room. Outside there is a large workshop (14x30), gazebo (16x20), Fab shop area (8x12), and open air workspace (12x24). There is a RV hook up, and the fab shop space has an AC hookup for welding machine. Come see all that this property has to offer! Call today!

10. 2014-01-01
    historical
11. 2012-03-16
    listed $105,000
12. 1996-03-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,402 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,402 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$3,402
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,882
• − Management: −$1,882
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $1,045
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$251
• After-tax cash flow: $3,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Old River-Winfree

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+61.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2015-09-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-09-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-08-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-08-11 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2014-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-03-16 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 1996-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,402 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.