330 W hwy 246 #83 · Buellton, CA 93427

$429,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 130 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $364k · 18% over ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large brand-new Hybrid Home in desirable Ranch Club Estates in Buellton. Large 3 bed 2 bath with high flat ceiling throughout in this custom home. Beautiful views inside and outside from this open floor plan home. Large full covered deck looking out towards the mountain views. Nice yard space on this corner lot and close to all that Buellton/Solvang has to offer.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Full covered deck
• Corner lot

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FULL COVERED DECK
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $1,050 (current)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Ranch Club Esttes (park name)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Mobile home dimensions approximately 27 ft by 60 ft; Mobile home remains on property
• Construction: Year built reported by builder
• Exterior features: Community pool; Landscaped grounds; Park within the community

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Side entry; Entry on level 1
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $378k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.0% in Buellton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#438 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Santa Ynez Valley Union High (town): math 37% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #386 of 1,400 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $377,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $364,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
330 W Hwy 246 #24	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+2%)	4mo	$245,000	$160	92
330 west hwy 246 #64	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+2%)	8mo	$349,950	$228	90
330 W hwy 246 #90	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+4%)	5mo	$444,000	$285	89
330 W Highway 246 #51	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+8%)	5mo	$459,000	$283	83
330 W Highway 246 #120	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	9mo	$350,000	$243	80
330 W Hwy 246 #54	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-7%)	5mo	$265,000	$189	80
330 W Hwy 246 #92	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+3%)	20mo	$458,000	$295	78
330 W Hwy 246 #91	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+2%)	18mo	$235,000	$153	76
330 W hwy 246 #137	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+8%)	15mo	$449,950	$278	74
330 W Hwy 246 #230	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-10%)	15mo	$217,000	$161	65
330 W Highway 246 #60	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+12%)	21mo	$340,000	$202	63
80 Zaca St #35	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-10%)	15mo	$330,000	$246	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-44,685
• Equity at exit: $63,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-6,758
• Equity at exit: $37,092

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93427

• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$536 /mo · $6,435/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$891
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,753

Max offer price $429,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $685	-5% $537	+0% $389	+5% $241	+10% $92
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $221	+0% $389	+5% $557	+10% $724
Rate	-1.0pp $605	-0.5pp $498	base $389	+0.5pp $278	+1.0pp $165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
258 Dairyland Rd Buellton, CA	3.0	2.0	1534	$4,400	$2.87	22d	1	0.22mi
508 Willow Ln Buellton, CA	4.0	2.0	2010	$4,850	$2.41	15d	1	0.41mi
595 Avenue of the Flags #203 Buellton, CA	3.0	2.0	1560	$3,300	$2.12	15d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $429,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $429,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $429,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $429,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $429,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $429,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $429,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    price $429,000
17. 2026-02-11
    listed $439,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$6,435
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,075
• − Management: −$4,075
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$2,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $5,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Ynez Valley Union High
• NCES district ID: 0635850
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $85,622
• Composite: 46.97/100
• National rank: #5151
• State rank: #386 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Buellton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #15010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buellton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,866

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -432.89%
• Current HPI: 247.882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $429,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $439,950 CRMLS