955 Wilson Ave · St. Paul, MN 55106

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1885 5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a nice quiet area of Dayton's bluff, close to Rec Center, Mounds Park and the River. Cat 2 home with many updates in the 80's. Needs work but worth it for the price. Newer windows & doors, Good size bedrooms, Lots of built ins on both floors, big kitchen, 5 parking spots off street, Newer electrical and furnace. Tall basement ceilings, Egress window in the basement to add a 4th bedroom. Empty lot next door. Come take a look and make an offer today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Add another bedroom
• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• ADD ANOTHER BEDROOM
• EGRESS WINDOW INSTALLED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage not specified; 1 garage space
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas fuel; 100 amp electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; One-and-a-half story layout; Entry level includes main floor living spaces
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Foundation of block and stone; Built area includes 905 square feet of finished living area
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total including a main-floor bedroom; Main floor bedroom (10 x 10); Upper bedroom (14 x 11); Upper bedroom (16 x 11)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Informal dining area / kitchen-dining layout; Kitchen window; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in basement; Electric dryer hookup in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $961 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,768/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2046% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 35y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $170k implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $169,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.23%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $43,105
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $157,758
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55106

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,768 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,166/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $961

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,057	-5% $1,009	+0% $961	+5% $913	+10% $865
Rent	-10% $742	-5% $851	+0% $961	+5% $1,070	+10% $1,179
Rate	-1.0pp $1,046	-0.5pp $1,004	base $961	+0.5pp $917	+1.0pp $872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
330 9th St E St Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	978	$2,495	$2.55	4d	3	1.34mi
250 6th St E St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,868	$2.93	0d	17	1.36mi
240 5th St E St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,770	$2.92	0d	9	1.38mi
180 E Kellogg Blvd St Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1436	$4,595	$3.20	0d	22	1.42mi
333 Sibley St Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1358	$3,269	$2.41	11d	10	1.44mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 170-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,166 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,166 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$3,166
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,657
• − Management: −$2,657
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $9,421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,261
• After-tax cash flow: $9,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 56,708
• Household income: $70,187
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2046.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 34% White 32% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 27% Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -239.48%
• Current HPI: 288.7205
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.26%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+215.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-01 Sold (MLS) $56,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-28 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-05 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-19 Price Changed $58,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-01 Listed $65,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-14 Price Changed $65,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-24 Listed $70,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2010-09-29 Sold (MLS) $25,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-04 Listed $29,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-08-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-08-20 Listed $53,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,166 · +32.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.