3016 Shaw Dr SW Unit 26-A · South Valley, NM 87105

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1972 Fair condition 10,062 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3016 Shaw, Home has 3 bedroom and 1 bath. Seller replaced the kitchen cabinets and counter top, Plumbing lines were replace with PEX piping in 2019. This property comes with 2 lots, they are currently subdivided, each lot is . 2314. Lots of possibilities for new families. Property has an irrigation well.

Key facts

• Irrigation well
• 2 lots
• Kitchen cabinets

Tags

• KITCHEN CABINETS
• COUNTER TOP
• PEX PIPING
• 2 LOTS
• IRRIGATION WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.9% in South Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#113 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: commute C-, employment D, schools F.
• Albuquerque Public Schools (urban): math 51% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #3 of 29 in NM (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 1,316 units permitted in Bernalillo County in 2024 (546 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.92%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $47
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $27,270
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87105

• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,555 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $376	+0% $331	+5% $286	+10% $241
Rent	-10% $208	-5% $269	+0% $331	+5% $392	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $396	-0.5pp $364	base $331	+0.5pp $297	+1.0pp $263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 317-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,493
• − Management: −$1,493
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$485
• After-tax cash flow: $3,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including cleaning, painting, and replacing worn flooring. Landscaping and curb appeal improvements would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Bathroom cleaning — The bathroom is cluttered and needs cleaning.
• Moderate Bedroom flooring replacement — The flooring in the bedrooms looks worn and may need replacement.
• Major Landscaping and curb appeal — The landscaping and curb appeal are lacking, which affects the overall appearance of the home.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Painting the interior walls can improve the appearance of the home and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Replacing the flooring in the bedrooms — Replacing the worn flooring in the bedrooms can improve the appearance and functionality of the space, making it more appealing to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Landscaping and curb appeal can improve the overall appearance of the home and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Bathroom cleaning · The bathroom is cluttered and needs cleaning.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bedroom flooring replacement · The flooring in the bedrooms looks worn and may need replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping and curb appeal · The landscaping and curb appeal are lacking, which affects the overall appearance of the home.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$18,500–68,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Painting the interior walls can improve the appearance of the home and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Replacing the flooring in the bedrooms — Replacing the worn flooring in the bedrooms can improve the appearance and functionality of the space, making it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Landscaping and curb appeal can improve the overall appearance of the home and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albuquerque Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500060
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 45.00%
• Median HH income: $48,151
• Composite: 53.29/100
• National rank: #1487
• State rank: #3 of 29 in NM

Livability — South Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #19456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Valley, NM
• County: Bernalillo County · 647,165 people
• City population: 54,215
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 54,367
• Household income: $55,644
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Bernalillo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 704,528 people
• By 2030: 711,723 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 714,522 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 709,274 · +0.7%
• By 2075: 680,015 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 619,879 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 34% White 14% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 45%

Political lean MEDSL · Bernalillo

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.2% · R 38.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.3pp no change · 2008: 21.4pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+24.4 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.16%
• Current HPI: 269.4587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $129,900 Southwest MLS