314 W Water St · Farmer City, IL 61842

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,002 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1858

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Long time rental property. Lease is signed until 7/2021. Great investment property! Monthly rent is $350 - tenant pays all utilities.

Key facts

• Built 1858

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $712 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#950 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge CUSD 18 (rural): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #370 of 620 in IL (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in De Witt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• De Witt County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1858 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $15,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1858 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 63.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 203.38%
• DSCR: 10.05
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.22×
• Total profit: $42,921
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.81×
• Total profit: $95,815
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61842

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $712

Break-even live

Break-even rent $131

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$991
• − Management: −$991
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $8,828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,119
• After-tax cash flow: $6,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge CUSD 18
• NCES district ID: 1700003
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $56,020
• Composite: 20.14/100
• National rank: #8640
• State rank: #370 of 620 in IL

Livability — Farmer City

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #950
• US rank: #18575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farmer City, IL
• Population (ZIP): 2,577

Population outlook (De Witt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,564 people
• By 2030: 15,026 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 13,704 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 12,222 · -21.5%
• By 2075: 8,863 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 5,736 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · De Witt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.9) · D 26.6% · R 71.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.9 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.11%
• Current HPI: 188.8647
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $931 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.