28 Foxberry Dr · University at Buffalo, NY 14068

$149,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 620 sqft · Condo · 25 Days on market

Built 1975 $217/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful little 1 bedroom unit on first floor is light and bright. Remodeled bathroom with nice glass accent tile, new surround and vanity. Kitchen has some updated cabinets and Corian counter, tile backsplash and laminate floors. Updated windows and slider to patio. 6 panel doors. This unit is well maintained and move in ready. HOA has a beautiful pool! Cats and Dogs allowed with size limit. Showings begin 6/2/22. Offers due 6/10 at 12noon.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Private patio
• First floor location

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LOCATION
• PRIVATE PATIO
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE WINDOWS
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• LAUNDRY FACILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-646/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (5.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in University at Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#9 in NY, #176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D+, employment F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $142,108 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-27,564
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-27,783
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14068

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,586

Max offer price $142,108

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $-2	+0% $-54	+5% $-106	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-114	+0% $-54	+5% $6	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-16	base $-54	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2635 N Forest Rd Unit Type F Getzville, NY	—	1.0	575	$1,525	$2.65	3d	1	1.29mi
2635 N Forest Rd Unit Type L Getzville, NY	—	1.0	500	$1,425	$2.85	5d	1	1.29mi
2635 N Forest Rd Unit Type G Getzville, NY	1.0	1.0	705	$1,699	$2.41	3d	1	1.29mi
2635 N Forest Rd Getzville, NY	—	1.0	460	$1,395	$3.03	5d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-09-05
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-26
   price $149,900
3. 2025-08-11
   listed $159,900 Active
4. 2022-08-01
   soldstatus $133,000 Closed Sale or Rented 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Beautiful little 1 bedroom unit on first floor is light and bright. Remodeled bathroom with nice glass accent tile, new surround and vanity. Kitchen has some updated cabinets and Corian counter, tile backsplash and laminate floors. Updated windows and slider to patio. 6 panel doors. This unit is well maintained and move in ready. HOA has a beautiful pool! Cats and Dogs allowed with size limit. Showings begin 6/2/22. Offers due 6/10 at 12noon.

5. 2022-06-10
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Beautiful little 1 bedroom unit on first floor is light and bright. Remodeled bathroom with nice glass accent tile, new surround and vanity. Kitchen has some updated cabinets and Corian counter, tile backsplash and laminate floors. Updated windows and slider to patio. 6 panel doors. This unit is well maintained and move in ready. HOA has a beautiful pool! Cats and Dogs allowed with size limit. Showings begin 6/2/22. Offers due 6/10 at 12noon.

6. 2022-05-31
   listed $120,000 Active 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Beautiful little 1 bedroom unit on first floor is light and bright. Remodeled bathroom with nice glass accent tile, new surround and vanity. Kitchen has some updated cabinets and Corian counter, tile backsplash and laminate floors. Updated windows and slider to patio. 6 panel doors. This unit is well maintained and move in ready. HOA has a beautiful pool! Cats and Dogs allowed with size limit. Showings begin 6/2/22. Offers due 6/10 at 12noon.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$734
• After-tax cash flow: $88/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — University at Buffalo

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #176

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,827
• Population (ZIP): 8,504

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 9% Asian 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Scotch-Irish 3% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.31%
• Current HPI: 314.5567
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+24.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-08-01 Sold (MLS) $133,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-06-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-05-31 Listed $120,000 WNYREIS