801 W Earling Rd · Donna, TX 78537

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 228 Days on market

Built 1966 0.50 ac lot $139/sqft · at area comps Est $144k · 17% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors and Dreamers Welcome to this Spacious half-acre with space to expand, your renovation projects starts here! Fix it up or build anew this property comes with Great bones with plenty of room to grow, Whether you’re looking for your next investment or a home to transform ,this property delivers the space and opportunity you need.

Key facts

• Renovation projects
• Space to expand
• Half-acre

Tags

• HALF-ACRE
• SPACE TO EXPAND
• RENOVATION PROJECTS
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Donna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,411 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Donna ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #821 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,970 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,907
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -16.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $57,310
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $175,118
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78537

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $880 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,705/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,040

Max offer price $97,662

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 227 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 226 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 225 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 219 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 218 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 217 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 214 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 213 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 212 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 211 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 210 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 209 DOM
17. 2026-01-13
    price $120,000 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Investors and Dreamers Welcome to this Spacious half-acre with space to expand, your renovation projects starts here! Fix it up or build anew this property comes with Great bones with plenty of room to grow, Whether you’re looking for your next investment or a home to transform ,this property delivers the space and opportunity you need.

18. 2025-10-31
    listed $125,000 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Investors and Dreamers Welcome to this Spacious half-acre with space to expand, your renovation projects starts here! Fix it up or build anew this property comes with Great bones with plenty of room to grow, Whether you’re looking for your next investment or a home to transform ,this property delivers the space and opportunity you need.

19. 2024-09-04
    price $152,000
20. 2024-07-17
    listed $155,000 Active
21. 2004-07-22
    soldstatus
22. 2003-05-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,705 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$491/yr (+$41/mo · 28.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,705
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$845
• − Management: −$845
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$3,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$876
• After-tax cash flow: $-641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Donna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $27,330
• Composite: 11.16/100
• National rank: #9728
• State rank: #821 of 826 in TX

Livability — Donna

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1411
• US rank: #24172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 51,346
• Population (ZIP): 51,346

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 49% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.30%
• Current HPI: 243.3933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $120,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $125,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $152,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-07-17 Listed $155,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2004-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,705 · +16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.