Is 104 Adze Dr in Liberty Hill, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 6.0% cap rate and $-89/mo modeled cash flow at a $333,120 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 104 Adze Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 6.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,871/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 48.15

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +11.8/30.0
Schools +4.8/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.6/10.0
DSCR +3.5/10.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Rent growth +2.0/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$333,120

104 Adze Dr · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,107 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,052 sqft lot Garage $158/sqft · 22% below area Est $427k · 22% under $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 104 Adze Drive, located in the cozy Cascade community. This two-story new construction home was designed with elevated style and everyday comfort in mind. Inside the home's interior is bright and welcoming, you'll see modern finishes such as wood-look vinyl flooring through the main living spaces, and natural light that fills every corner of the home. Enter the kitchen where you'll be greeted with durable 3cm Blanco Atlantico granite countertops, 42-inch upper cabinets, a center island, and sleek black appliances with a gas range. A mud room and utility closet can be found just off of the garage, making laundry a more swift and organized experience. Retire to the primary suite where you'll find a walk-in closet, dual vanity, and a semi-private water closet. Enjoy other amazing highlights such as walk-in closets in the secondary bedrooms and silestone bathroom vanities. Located about 35 miles from downtown Austin and close to 183, Liberty Hill is surrounded by the breathtaking rolling hills of the Texas Hill Country. This vibrant community features a charming historic downtown district with a strong sense of belonging that you'll love-making it the perfect place to live, grow, and find your new home.

Key facts

Black appliances
Utility closet
Center island

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $333k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (3.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (13.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $287k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Bill Burden El (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 808 students, 19% FRL); Liberty Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 944 students, 26% FRL); Liberty Hill H S (math 39% / reading 69%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,001 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1739 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $287,056 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.86% ✗
Cap rate: 5.97%
Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
DSCR: 0.95
GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $426,802
List price: $333,120
Delta: -21.95%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Adze Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,265 (+8%)	0mo	$334,980	$148	85
116 Adze Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,997 (-5%)	2mo	$320,220	$160	83
140 Adze Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,265 (+8%)	1mo	$334,960	$148	83
132 Adze Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,259 (+7%)	4mo	$328,870	$146	82
216 Foundation Ln	0.67mi	4/3.5	1,978 (-6%)	1mo	$524,900	$265	53
204 Foundation Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,026 (-4%)	6mo	$459,900	$227	48
527 Outrider Ct	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (-8%)	2mo	$399,900	$205	46
117 Top View Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (-8%)	5mo	$399,900	$205	45
514 Outrider Ct	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,910 (-9%)	2mo	$398,900	$209	41
1013 Lariat Loop	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,357 (+12%)	13mo	$449,900	$191	33
1005 Lariat Loop	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,357 (+12%)	17mo	$553,900	$235	30
1017 Lariat Loop	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,373 (+13%)	16mo	$474,900	$200	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -21.7%
Equity multiple: 0.27×
Total profit: $-68,007
Equity at exit: $49,669

10-year hold

IRR: -25.2%
Equity multiple: -0.06×
Total profit: $-98,747
Equity at exit: $28,802

Cash invested: $93,274 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 93 active · 29 under contract
Months of supply: 10.5 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $474,900 ($205/sqft)
Median days on market: 125 d
This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -1.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78642

Home prices YoY: -32.4%
Rents YoY: -1.9%
Active inventory: 1739
Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,871 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,747
Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,997/yr
Insurance: −$139
HOA: −$55
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,984

Max offer price $320,187

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $26	+0% $-89	+5% $-204	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-203	+0% $-89	+5% $24	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $-5	base $-89	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $83,280
Closing costs: $9,994
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Gary Wayne Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2444	$2,600	$1.06	26d	1	0.70mi
205 River Rd Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2900	$3,200	$1.10	9d	1	0.98mi
217 McCrae Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2453	$2,900	$1.18	46d	1	1.02mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,350	$1.35	65d	1	1.16mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	3.0	1745	$2,350	$1.35	53d	1	1.16mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association (Pamco) with a $55 monthly fee covering common area maintenanceCommunity mailbox, curbs, street lights, sidewalks

Exterior

Parking: Attached garageGarage faces frontSingle door garageDriveway parkingTwo covered parking spaces (2 total)
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Electricity availablePublic water connectedMunicipal Utility District sewer
Home design: Two-story new constructionFaces westSlab foundation
Construction: Built by Brohn HomesFrame construction with HardiPlank sidingBlown-in insulationComposition shingle roof
Exterior features: Private yardBack yardFront yardLandscapedAutomatic sprinklers (front, rear, side)Few small treesPrivacy wood fencing in back yard

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveOven
Bedrooms: Main level primary bedroom
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityEntrance foyerEat-in kitchenGranite countersInterior stepsKitchen islandOpen floorplanPantryRecessed lightingInsulated windowsWalk-in closet(s)
Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with laundry closet and washer hookup

HOA detail $55/mo · $660/yr

Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $333,120 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $333,120 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $333,120 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $333,120 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $333,120 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $333,120 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $333,120 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $333,120 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $333,120 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $333,120 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $333,120 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $333,120 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $333,120 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $333,120 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $333,120 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $333,120 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $333,120 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $333,120 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $333,120 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $333,120 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $333,120 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $333,120 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $333,120 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $333,120 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $333,120 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $333,120 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $333,120 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $333,120 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $333,120 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $333,120 Active 76 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $333,120 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $333,120 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $333,120 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $333,120 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $333,120 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $333,120 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $333,120 Active 67 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $333,120 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $333,120 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $333,120 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $333,120 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $333,120 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $333,120 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $333,120 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $333,120 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $333,120 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-05

days on market $333,120 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $333,120 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $333,120 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $333,120 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $34,447
− Mortgage interest: −$18,660
− Property taxes: −$4,997
− Insurance: −$1,666
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,756
− Management: −$2,756
− HOA: −$660
− Depreciation: −$9,691
Taxable loss: −$6,738

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,617
After-tax cash flow: $545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,535–$31,605 screening

This two-story new construction home in Liberty Hill, TX, is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add a modern touch and protect the countertops. ↑
Rental Smart home integration — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy renters and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bill Burden El F TX #1,490/4,322 Nat'l #19,191/41,679 Middle Louine Noble El D TX #926/4,322 Nat'l #13,933/41,679 High Liberty Hill H S C- TX #422/1,632 Nat'l #4,773/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Liberty Hill ISD
NCES district ID: 4827420
Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $81,084
Composite: 43.65/100
National rank: #2965
State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Liberty Hill

Score: 68/100
State rank: #495
US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
City population: 26,434
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 26,434
Household income: $132,958
Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 699,027 people
By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
Current HPI: 228.5772
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-05-13 Price Changed $333,120 Zillow
2026-05-12 Price Changed $333,120 Unlock MLS
2026-05-08 Price Changed $331,120 Zillow
2026-05-07 Price Changed $331,120 Unlock MLS
2026-04-22 Price Changed $329,100 Zillow
2026-04-21 Price Changed $329,100 Unlock MLS
2026-04-16 Listed $326,100 Zillow
2026-04-16 Listed $326,100 Unlock MLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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