221 Indian Key Ln #254 · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Condo public records · 184 Days on market

Built 1977 $125/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bed 2 Bath Manufactured home in active 55+ older community with many amenities and activities. New air conditioning in 2008. Floors were fixed, roof was checked. Move right in.

Key facts

• Extra vacant lot
• Peaceful retreat
• Separate dining area

Tags

• THREE DISTINCT LIVING AREAS
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• ADDITIONAL FAMILY ROOM
• EXTRA VACANT LOT
• PEACEFUL RETREAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is deed restricted; Lot unit 254 within the development; Regular lot
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $125; Annual recurring fees approximately $1,500 and one-time fees approximately $300; Association-managed (Condo management); Community amenities include basketball, billiards, business center, clubhouse, community pool, community room, library, pickleball, shuffleboard, streetlights, and tennis court; Maintenance provided for legal/accounting, manager, reserves, and street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with space for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; Single-story; Built in 1977; Located in West Wind Estates (mobile/manufactured community)
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Roof over
• Exterior features: Patio; Single-hung windows; Vinyl siding exterior; East rear exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator/ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Dining area in living room; Screened lanai/porch; Laundry in garage; Furnishings negotiable
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($771/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $185k implies a 362% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.37%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,031
• Equity at exit: $40,425

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $8,192
• Equity at exit: $38,940

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 900
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 Grassy Key Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,850	$1.48	14d	1	0.19mi
130 Grassy Key Ln #37 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,795	$1.44	14d	1	0.19mi
2235 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,795	$1.86	23d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2025-12-17
    listed $185,000 Active
15. 2011-03-31
    soldstatus $40,000 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    2 Bed 2 Bath Manufactured home in active 55+ older community with many amenities and activities. New air conditioning in 2008. Floors were fixed, roof was checked. Move right in.

16. 2011-02-08
    listed $44,400 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    2 Bed 2 Bath Manufactured home in active 55+ older community with many amenities and activities. New air conditioning in 2008. Floors were fixed, roof was checked. Move right in.

17. 2011-02-04
    historical
18. 2010-10-13
    listed $55,000
19. 1993-02-01
    soldstatus $33,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$6,044
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,169
• − Management: −$2,169
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$474
• After-tax cash flow: $1,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+457.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Listed $185,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-03-31 Sold (MLS) $40,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-02-08 Listed $44,400 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-02-04 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2010-10-13 Listed $55,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1993-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.