500 12th St Unit G-9 · Kremmling, CO 80459

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily · 147 Days on market

Built 2024 5,000 sqft lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy mountain living at its finest in this lightly lived-in home perched along the banks of the Muddy River. After just two years of careful use, this 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom property feels nearly brand new—offering modern finishes, comfort, and an unbeatable location. Inside, soaring 9' ceilings and floor-to-ceiling windows flood the space with natural light and mountain views, creating an open, airy atmosphere. The thoughtful layout seamlessly blends kitchen, dining, and living areas for everyday ease. A spacious bedroom and oversized bathroom provide comfort, while the full-size appliances, generous storage, and kitchen island make daily life both stylish and practical. Step outside

Key facts

• Boating
• Public lands
• Fishing

Tags

• FLOOR-TO-CEILING WINDOWS
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• PUBLIC LANDS
• EXTENSIVE TRAIL SYSTEM
• BOATING
• FISHING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 0.6% in Kremmling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#65 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• West Grand School District No. 1 (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #102 of 176 in CO (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Grand Elementary And Middle School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #512 of 966 statewide, top 55%, 279 students, 33% FRL); West Grand High School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #167 of 381 statewide, top 46%, 112 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.36%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $337,620
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 18th St	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,039 (+2%)	8mo	$399,000	$384	64
908 Central Ave Ave #4	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (-4%)	17mo	$52,000	$53	55
331 Kinsey Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,074 (+5%)	3mo	$463,000	$431	54
212 20th St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-6%)	3mo	$416,000	$433	54
401 Kinsey Ave	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,074 (+5%)	8mo	$430,170	$401	53
421 Kinsey Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,074 (+5%)	12mo	$395,000	$368	49
200 9th Unit A	0.33mi	2/1.5	900 (-12%)	22mo	$298,000	$331	45
207 20th St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+4%)	22mo	$328,650	$311	43
901 Central Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,154 (+13%)	22mo	$357,000	$309	43
407 Eagle Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,169 (+15%)	7mo	$135,111	$116	39
307 Eagle Avenue Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,136 (+11%)	9mo	$368,000	$324	36
405 5th St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,147 (+12%)	6mo	$379,000	$330	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-10,675
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-43
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80459

• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-05
   price $110,000
3. 2025-10-01
   listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,060
• − Management: −$1,060
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$433
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$104
• After-tax cash flow: $1,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Grand School District No. 1
• NCES district ID: 0805070
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,989
• Composite: 28.89/100
• National rank: #11951
• State rank: #102 of 176 in CO

Livability — Kremmling

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #6209

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,691

Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 26% Hispanic / Latino 22%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.60%
• Current HPI: 350.7952
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Pending — GCAR
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $110,000 GCAR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $119,900 GCAR