Princeton Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$562,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Good condition 3-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious single-story home features a formal dining room with elegant arched doorways, followed by an open layout among the Great Room, kitchen and breakfast nook, with access to a covered lanai. In addition to the owner's suite, are three secondary bedrooms and a three-bay garage for versatile needs.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Arched doorways
• Open layout

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• ARCHED DOORWAYS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED LANAI

🏗️ New construction. The $562,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $909,758.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $563k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $526k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $495k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1687 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,264/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($495k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $495,439 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.03%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $909,758
• List price: $562,999
• Delta: -38.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5918 Mound Key Run	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,245 (0%)	2mo	$730,000	$325	75
5938 Mound Key Run	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,268 (+1%)	0mo	$795,554	$351	71
19804 Trout Ter	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,246 (+0%)	3mo	$725,000	$323	70
19728 Trout Ter	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,246 (+0%)	3mo	$750,000	$334	70
5731 Cheech Gln	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,224 (-1%)	3mo	$1,055,000	$474	69
19816 Trout Ter	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,247 (+0%)	2mo	$752,997	$335	66
5939 Brandon Run	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,249 (+0%)	0mo	$955,100	$425	61
19223 Scallop Loop	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,445 (+9%)	4mo	$775,000	$317	57
18020 Cresswind Ter	0.71mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,302 (+3%)	1mo	$660,000	$287	53
18026 Fattoria Ter	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,537 (+13%)	4mo	$534,500	$211	51
5910 Mound Key Run	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,445 (+9%)	4mo	$800,000	$327	49
18249 Rockport Pl	0.71mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,318 (+3%)	4mo	$738,000	$318	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-298,337
• Equity at exit: $135,648

10-year hold

• IRR: -77.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.94×
• Total profit: $-493,650
• Equity at exit: $78,659

Cash invested: $254,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 69 active · 56 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.4 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $834,607 ($344/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1687
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,771
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,137 /mo · $13,646/yr
• Insurance: −$379
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,105
• Net cashflow: $-2,129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,958

Max offer price $601,750

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,500	-5% $-1,814	+0% $-2,129	+5% $-2,443	+10% $-2,757
Rent	-10% $-2,544	-5% $-2,336	+0% $-2,129	+5% $-1,921	+10% $-1,713
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,670	-0.5pp $-1,897	base $-2,129	+0.5pp $-2,364	+1.0pp $-2,604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $227,439
• Closing costs: $27,293
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5612 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$8,000	$3.27	10d	1	0.02mi
5420 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$6,000	$2.45	164d	1	0.02mi
5612 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$12,500	$5.11	164d	1	0.02mi
5522 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2725	$5,800	$2.13	164d	1	0.02mi
5628 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2252	$4,595	$2.04	144d	1	0.02mi
19051 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$5,700	$2.33	10d	1	0.21mi
19047 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2245	$8,000	$3.56	10d	1	0.21mi
19051 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$5,000	$2.04	55d	1	0.21mi
5623 Mulligan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2359	$14,000	$5.93	10d	1	0.22mi
19219 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2725	$6,000	$2.20	110d	1	0.32mi
18731 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$8,000	$2.86	10d	1	0.46mi
19209 Cherrystone WAY #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$5,000	$2.37	55d	1	0.47mi
19718 Trout Ter Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	21d	1	0.47mi
19718 Trout Ter Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	2.0	2246	$5,250	$2.34	2d	1	0.47mi
5725 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$12,000	$6.49	10d	1	0.49mi
5720 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	10d	1	0.50mi
19124 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$7,000	$3.12	10d	1	0.51mi
19140 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$8,000	$3.56	125d	1	0.52mi
18121 Metado Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,799	$1.53	127d	1	0.53mi
18121 Metado Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,900	$1.59	164d	1	0.53mi
19108 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$4,600	$2.05	108d	1	0.59mi
19023 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	10d	1	0.59mi
19156 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$5,000	$2.23	164d	1	0.59mi
19230 Cherrystone Way #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,600	$1.44	10d	1	0.60mi
5119 Adega Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,990	$1.64	46d	1	0.62mi
20103 Trout Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2689	$8,500	$3.16	2d	1	0.66mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	152d	1	0.67mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	164d	1	0.67mi
17915 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,999	$1.47	164d	1	0.68mi
18006 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2674	$3,400	$1.27	46d	1	0.68mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,700	$1.14	55d	1	0.69mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,000	$1.27	144d	1	0.69mi
5907 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2246	$6,800	$3.03	10d	1	0.71mi
17918 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,800	$1.53	10d	1	0.72mi
17821 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,200	$1.56	127d	1	0.74mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$13,000	$5.91	164d	1	0.75mi
17525 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2250	$7,800	$3.47	10d	1	0.77mi
5125 Tannin Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2700	$4,200	$1.56	49d	1	0.77mi
17819 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,680	$1.47	108d	1	0.78mi
17605 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,300	$1.61	10d	1	0.78mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5637 Lightning Whelk Ln, Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $560,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Princeton)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,244 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Princeton (new construction inventory)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $562,999 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $562,999 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $562,999 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $562,999 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $562,999 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $562,999 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $562,999 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $562,999 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $562,999 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $562,999 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $562,999 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $562,999 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $562,999 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $562,999 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $562,999 Active 190 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $562,999 Active 189 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $562,999 Active 188 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $562,999 Active 187 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $562,999 Active 186 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $562,999 Active 185 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $562,999 Active 184 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $562,999 Active 183 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $562,999 Active 182 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $562,999 Active 181 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $562,999 Active 180 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $562,999 Active 179 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $562,999 Active 178 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $562,999 Active 177 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $562,999 Active 176 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $562,999 Active 175 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $562,999 Active 174 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $562,999 Active 173 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $562,999 Active 172 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $562,999 Active 171 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $562,999 Active 170 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $562,999 Active 169 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $562,999 Active 168 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $562,999 Active 167 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $562,999 Active 166 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $562,999 Active 165 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $562,999 Active 164 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $562,999 Active 163 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $562,999 Active 161 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $562,999 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $562,999 Active 158 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $562,999 Active 157 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    pricedays on marketlisting id $562,999 Active 156 DOM
48. 2026-09-18
    days on market $560,999 Active 10 DOM
49. 2026-09-17
    days on market $560,999 Active 9 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $560,999 Active 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,961
• − Property taxes: −$13,646
• − Insurance: −$4,549
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,053
• − Management: −$5,053
• − Depreciation: −$26,466
• Taxable loss: −$42,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,214
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This spacious single-story home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Modernizes look and improves energy efficiency ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5637 Lightning Whelk Ln, Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $560,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Princeton)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,244 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Princeton (new construction inventory)