4836 Station Ln #14 · Union City, GA 30291

$316,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2025 3,484 sqft lot $68/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

The Nelson Plan offers a thoughtful blend of simplicity and style, designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open and inviting family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating the perfect setting for gatherings and entertaining. The kitchen provides generous cabinet and countertop space, along with a convenient pantry for added storage. Upstairs, the private Owner's Suite offers a relaxing retreat complete with a spacious walk-in closet and well-appointed bath. Two additional secondary bedrooms, a full bath, and a versatile loft provide flexible space for a home office, media area, or playroom. Additional highlights include a split bedr

Key facts

• Well-appointed bath
• Convenient pantry
• Versatile loft

Tags

• GENEROUS CABINET SPACE
• CONVENIENT PANTRY
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• WELL-APPOINTED BATH
• VERSATILE LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $316,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,600.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $317k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-603 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.4% in Union City — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#443 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Point Elementary School (math 37% / reading 31%, grade F, #554 of 1,228 statewide, top 46%, 694 students, 100% FRL); Camp Creek Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #301 of 470 statewide, top 66%, 644 students, 100% FRL); Langston Hughes High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #336 of 424 statewide, top 80%, 1,964 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 41% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-27 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,119/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1778% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $211,890 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.08%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4837 Station Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,700 (0%)	2mo	$318,990	$188	98
4855 Station Ln #24	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,700 (0%)	1mo	$318,990	$188	97
4855 Station Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,700 (0%)	1mo	$318,990	$188	97
4812 Station Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,700 (0%)	0mo	$318,990	$188	96
4811 Station Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,700 (0%)	2mo	$318,990	$188	95
3318 Stonewall Ln #67	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,690 (-1%)	4mo	$324,990	$192	88
3554 Station Dr #33	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,700 (0%)	18mo	$325,990	$192	74
5345 Stonewall Ct #39	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,700 (0%)	24mo	$336,490	$198	72
5385 Forest Downs Cir	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,600 (-6%)	19mo	$205,000	$128	64
5225 Koweta Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,839 (+8%)	9mo	$170,000	$92	60
5454 Mason Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,556 (-8%)	10mo	$189,900	$122	50
8236 Eastshore Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,830 (+8%)	12mo	$261,300	$143	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $134,055
• Equity at exit: $287,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $421,782
• Equity at exit: $620,913

Cash invested: $89,488 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30291

• Home prices YoY: 11.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,794/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,882

Max offer price $232,381

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,900
• Closing costs: $9,588
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4812 Station Ln Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1695	$2,100	$1.24	1d	1	0.04mi
3416 Stonewall Ct Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1690	$2,450	$1.45	24d	1	0.18mi
5480 Sierra Trl Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,845	$1.32	43d	1	0.32mi
5131 Forest Downs Ln Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.0	2112	$1,580	$0.75	3d	1	0.40mi
4980 Stonewall Tell Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1573	$3,612	$2.30	24d	1	0.84mi
4980 Stonewall Tell Rd Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.0	1222	$2,209	$1.81	19d	1	0.84mi
4980 Stonewall Tell Rd Atlanta, GA	2.0	2.0	1222	$2,209	$1.81	21d	1	0.84mi
520 Dasheill Ln Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,410	$1.18	43d	1	0.94mi
5163 Rapahoe Trl Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.5	2060	$2,520	$1.22	1d	1	0.99mi
5950 Stonewall Dr Unit 4 Union City, GA	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,445	$1.09	2d	1	0.99mi
5950 Stonewall Dr Unit 2 Union City, GA	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,495	$1.13	15d	1	0.99mi
5140 Highpoint Rd Apt 27 Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1290	$1,295	$1.00	12d	1	1.03mi
3228 Diamond Blf Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1922	$2,195	$1.14	43d	1	1.09mi
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,595	$1.14	15d	1	1.11mi
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,595	$1.14	1d	1	1.11mi
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,595	$1.14	24d	1	1.11mi
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,625	$1.17	43d	1	1.11mi
3234 Diamond Blf Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1922	$2,360	$1.23	5d	1	1.13mi
4509 Ravenwood Pl Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1394	$1,970	$1.41	12d	1	1.21mi
4122 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	3.0	3.0	1394	$1,849	$1.33	24d	1	1.22mi
4813 Brookwood Pl Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1624	$2,075	$1.28	43d	1	1.27mi
4108 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1786	$2,400	$1.34	43d	1	1.28mi
4407 Roche St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,875	$1.14	43d	1	1.30mi
6120 Longino Dr Union City, GA	4.0	2.0	1608	$1,835	$1.14	12d	1	1.30mi
4223 Reeshemah St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1843	$1,995	$1.08	5d	1	1.33mi
4666 Ravenwood Loop Union City, GA	4.0	3.0	1916	$2,175	$1.14	24d	1	1.34mi
4420 Roche St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1622	$2,130	$1.31	43d	1	1.34mi
4681 Ravenwood Loop Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1593	$1,999	$1.25	43d	1	1.35mi
4095 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	2196	$2,023	$0.92	43d	1	1.36mi
4407 Sparrow Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0–5.0	2.5–3.0	2055	$2,335	$1.14	1d	10	1.39mi
4062 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.0	1874	$1,910	$1.02	24d	1	1.39mi
4497 Ravenwood Dr Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,000	$1.18	20d	1	1.40mi
4497 Ravenwood Dr Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,000	$1.18	43d	1	1.40mi
4064 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1874	$1,895	$1.01	24d	1	1.40mi
4056 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1174	$1,895	$1.61	24d	1	1.40mi
6115 Forrest Ave Union City, GA	4.0	2.0	1368	$1,690	$1.24	43d	1	1.41mi
4959 Wolfcreek Vw Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,945	$1.58	24d	1	1.41mi
479 Thistle Cv Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,785	$1.05	43d	1	1.42mi
5207 Dixie Lake Rd Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,950	$1.29	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-13
   price $316,990
3. 2026-02-27
   price $318,990
4. 2025-12-31
   historical
5. 2025-11-20
   price $324,490
6. 2025-10-18
   price $327,488
7. 2025-10-02
   price $327,490
8. 2025-09-13
   price $318,490
9. 2025-09-10
   price $327,490
10. 2025-08-27
    price $330,740
11. 2025-08-25
    price $299,000
12. 2025-08-21
    historical
13. 2025-06-27
    listed $327,490 New
14. 2025-02-17
    listed $319,990 New
15. 2025-02-15
    listed $327,490 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,903
• − Property taxes: −$4,794
• − Insurance: −$1,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,034
• − Management: −$2,034
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$9,297
• Taxable loss: −$13,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,132
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — Union City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #21281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 25,130
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,130
• Household income: $48,184
• Rent vs Own: 61.3% rent · 38.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1778.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.98%
• Current HPI: 239.3471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $316,990 GAMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $318,990 GAMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $324,490 GAMLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $327,488 GAMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $327,490 GAMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $318,490 GAMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $327,490 GAMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $330,740 GAMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $299,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $327,490 GAMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $319,990 GAMLS
• 2025-02-15 Listed $327,490 GAMLS