18420 NW 278 St · Okeechobee, FL 34972

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1999 2.50 ac lot Est $292k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prairie~Fixer-upper opportunity on 2.50 acres! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. Located in a growing community with no HOA and No Flood Zone (X), the property offers privacy, space, and endless potential. Enjoy easy commuting with quick access to multiple US highways. Outdoor enthusiasts will love the nearby hunting, fishing, and mudding activities, with Lake Okeechobee and Kissimmee Prairie State Park just a short drive away. A great opportunity to create your vision in a high-demand area with room to grow. (Parcels:1-22-34-33-0A00-00021-J000 & 1-22-34-33-0A00-00021-I000)

Key facts

• Privacy
• Easy commuting
• High-demand area

Tags

• NO HOA
• NO FLOOD ZONE
• PRIVACY
• EASY COMMUTING
• SHORT DRIVE TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE
• HIGH-DEMAND AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; 4 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Three-phase electric; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; North-facing; Resale property; Entry level: main level
• Construction: Modular construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Cul-de-sac lot; Corner lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.3% in Okeechobee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#210 in FL, #3,234 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Okeechobee (town): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #58 of 73 in FL (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Seminole Elementary School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 502 students, 75% FRL); Yearling Middle School (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #384 of 571 statewide, top 68%, 668 students, 70% FRL); Okeechobee High School (math 30% / reading 42%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,692 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 69% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 644 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Okeechobee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okeechobee County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $3k; list at $175k implies a 6381% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.42%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,032
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18610 NW 270th St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,661 (-4%)	13mo	$275,000	$166	55
18987 NW 268th St	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,493 (-14%)	8mo	$252,900	$169	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,612
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $50,981
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34972

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,320/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,604

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $647	-5% $597	+0% $548	+5% $498	+10% $449
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $457	+0% $548	+5% $639	+10% $729
Rate	-1.0pp $636	-0.5pp $592	base $548	+0.5pp $503	+1.0pp $456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    price $175,000
18. 2025-12-16
    listed $180,000 Active
19. 2013-09-21
    historical
20. 2006-03-20
    listed $440,000
21. 1999-05-04
    soldstatus $2,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,320 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,320 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,320
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $4,073
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$978
• After-tax cash flow: $5,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okeechobee
• NCES district ID: 1201410
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,710
• Composite: 35.73/100
• National rank: #4855
• State rank: #58 of 73 in FL

Livability — Okeechobee

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #3234

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 23,975
• Population (ZIP): 19,185

Population outlook (Okeechobee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,273 people
• By 2030: 35,885 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 32,931 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 29,433 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 19,607 · -47.4%
• By 2100: 11,814 · -68.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 14% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Okeechobee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.9% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.94%
• Current HPI: 389.1156
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+6381.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $175,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $180,000 Beaches MLS
• 2013-09-21 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2006-03-20 Listed $440,000 Beaches MLS
• 1999-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $2,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,320 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.