Abby Plan · Lubbock, TX 79407

$210,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily · 608 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

Key facts

• Enclosed pantry
• Brick exterior
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ENCLOSED PANTRY
• SECLUDED MASTER SUITE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $211k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-95/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 608 days — a 12% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $183,532 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 608 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-40,039
• Equity at exit: $31,453

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-56,189
• Equity at exit: $18,239

Cash invested: $59,066 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,106
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$264 /mo · $3,164/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,845

Max offer price $209,803

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,738
• Closing costs: $6,328
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	13d	1	0.18mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	21d	1	0.18mi
8607 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,749	$1.30	43d	1	0.22mi
2511 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,099	$1.45	21d	1	0.27mi
2505 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	21d	1	0.27mi
2509 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	21d	1	0.27mi
2515 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	21d	1	0.27mi
2055 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,649	$1.14	13d	1	0.29mi
2163 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,399	$1.50	21d	1	0.30mi
2617 Garland Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,000	$1.17	21d	1	0.30mi
2161 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,649	$1.06	21d	1	0.31mi
2154 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	21d	1	0.32mi
2168 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	43d	1	0.34mi
2150 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,199	$1.37	21d	1	0.34mi
2166 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,199	$1.37	13d	1	0.35mi
2139 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,349	$0.90	43d	1	0.36mi
2146 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,299	$1.48	43d	1	0.37mi
2162 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	43d	1	0.37mi
2125 Kirksey Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	13d	1	0.38mi
2028 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	13d	1	0.38mi
2147 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	21d	1	0.39mi
2131 Kokomo Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	21d	1	0.40mi
2140 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,999	$1.38	43d	1	0.40mi
2156 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,099	$1.31	21d	1	0.40mi
2143 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	43d	1	0.41mi
2154 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	43d	1	0.41mi
2152 Langford Ave Unit Labs Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,660	$1.14	21d	1	0.42mi
2139 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,899	$1.31	21d	1	0.43mi
2130 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	21d	1	0.43mi
2137 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	21d	1	0.43mi
2148 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	43d	1	0.44mi
2133 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,999	$1.29	21d	1	0.44mi
2144 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	13d	1	0.45mi
2127 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,699	$1.10	13d	1	0.45mi
2123 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	21d	1	0.46mi
2140 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,749	$1.13	43d	1	0.46mi
2138 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	43d	1	0.47mi
2134 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,699	$1.09	43d	1	0.48mi
2132 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	13d	1	0.48mi
2130 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,575	$1.01	43d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,950 Active 608 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,950 Active 607 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,950 Active 606 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,950 Active 605 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,950 Active 602 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,950 Active 600 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,950 Active 599 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,950 Active 598 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,950 Active 597 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,950 Active 594 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,950 Active 593 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,950 Active 592 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,950 Active 591 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,950 Active 590 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,950 Active 589 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $210,950 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

17. 2026-02-12
    price $203,950 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

18. 2025-10-22
    price $200,950 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

19. 2025-04-23
    price $201,950 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

20. 2025-03-26
    price $192,950 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

21. 2024-10-19
    listed $196,950 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,816
• − Property taxes: −$3,164
• − Insurance: −$1,055
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − Depreciation: −$6,137
• Taxable loss: −$3,672
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$881
• After-tax cash flow: $786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious and open floor plan with high-end finishes and features. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to the exterior and bathrooms to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and vinyl siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves the overall aesthetic of the home.
• Both Adding smart home features to the ceiling fans and recessed lighting — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick and vinyl siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves the overall aesthetic of the home. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features to the ceiling fans and recessed lighting — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $210,950 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $203,950 Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $200,950 Zillow
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $201,950 Zillow
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $192,950 Zillow
• 2024-10-19 Listed $196,950 Zillow