18218 Paradise Mtn #115 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 285 Days on market

Built 1977 4,000 sqft lot $78/sqft · 48% below area Est $232k · 48% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new retreat in the heart of Valley Center’s sought-after senior community. This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and a lifestyle you’ll love. Inside, you’ll find a bright and inviting layout with large windows that flood the space with natural light while showcasing stunning golf course views. Step outside and enjoy the peaceful setting of this gated community, designed with active living in mind. Residents can take advantage of the year-round golf course, sparkling pool, clubhouse, and scenic walking areas. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a seasonal escape, this home is an ideal choice for snowbirds seeking a warm and welcoming place to call home. Don’t miss the opportunity to enjoy resort-style living surrounded by natural beauty and vibrant amenities—all just steps from your door.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Scenic walking areas
• Clubhouse

Tags

• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE
• SCENIC WALKING AREAS
• RESORT-STYLE LIVING
• VIBRANT AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.2% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.95%
• DSCR: 3.85
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,450
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -48.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	88
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-0%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	86
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,530 (-0%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	85
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+2%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	82
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	12mo	$89,500	$62	79
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	14mo	$165,000	$115	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 11	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+2%)	21mo	$180,000	$115	75
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #144	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	12mo	$170,000	$101	74
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	73
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-15%)	9mo	$255,000	$195	68
18218 Paradise Mtn Rd #59	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	3mo	$249,900	$149	65
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #7	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,355 (-12%)	21mo	$92,000	$68	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $94,648
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.83×
• Total profit: $229,469
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $1,791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 267 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $120,000 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Welcome to your new retreat in the heart of Valley Center’s sought-after senior community. This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and a lifestyle you’ll love. Inside, you’ll find a bright and inviting layout with large windows that flood the space with natural light while showcasing stunning golf course views. Step outside and enjoy the peaceful setting of this gated community, designed with active living in mind. Residents can take advantage of the year-round golf course, sparkling pool, clubhouse, and scenic walking areas. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a seasonal escape, this home is an ideal choice for snowbirds seeking a warm and welcoming place to call home. Don’t miss the opportunity to enjoy resort-style living surrounded by natural beauty and vibrant amenities—all just steps from your door.

16. 2025-09-04
    listed $130,000 Active 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Welcome to your new retreat in the heart of Valley Center’s sought-after senior community. This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and a lifestyle you’ll love. Inside, you’ll find a bright and inviting layout with large windows that flood the space with natural light while showcasing stunning golf course views. Step outside and enjoy the peaceful setting of this gated community, designed with active living in mind. Residents can take advantage of the year-round golf course, sparkling pool, clubhouse, and scenic walking areas. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a seasonal escape, this home is an ideal choice for snowbirds seeking a warm and welcoming place to call home. Don’t miss the opportunity to enjoy resort-style living surrounded by natural beauty and vibrant amenities—all just steps from your door.

17. 2025-06-20
    historical
18. 2025-06-08
    price $138,000
19. 2025-03-20
    price $139,900
20. 2025-03-20
    price $139,000
21. 2025-03-03
    price $143,999
22. 2025-02-10
    price $145,900
23. 2025-01-08
    price $149,000
24. 2024-12-25
    price $157,000
25. 2024-11-14
    price $159,000
26. 2024-10-03
    price $163,000
27. 2024-09-09
    price $165,000
28. 2024-08-27
    price $167,000
29. 2024-07-31
    price $169,000
30. 2024-07-12
    price $179,000
31. 2024-05-17
    price $185,000
32. 2024-04-24
    price $197,000
33. 2024-03-26
    listed $200,000 Active
34. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus $110,000 Sold
35. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed Sale
36. 2019-03-09
    status Pending Sale
37. 2019-03-09
    status Pending
38. 2019-01-21
    listed $124,500 Active
39. 2019-01-21
    listed $124,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,184
• − Management: −$3,184
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $20,815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,996
• After-tax cash flow: $16,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $130,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-08 Price Changed $138,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $139,900 CRMLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $139,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $143,999 CRMLS
• 2025-02-10 Price Changed $145,900 CRMLS
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $149,000 CRMLS
• 2024-12-25 Price Changed $157,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $159,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $163,000 CRMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $165,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $167,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-17 Price Changed $185,000 CRMLS
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed $197,000 CRMLS
• 2024-03-26 Listed $200,000 CRMLS
• 2019-03-22 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CRMLS
• 2019-03-22 Sold (MLS) $110,000 SDMLS
• 2019-03-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2019-03-09 Pending — SDMLS
• 2019-01-21 Listed $124,500 CRMLS
• 2019-01-21 Listed $124,500 SDMLS