Littleton Plan · Houston, TX 77447

$295,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,984 sqft · SingleFamily · 459 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $295,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $326,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $296k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1790 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 459 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,087 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 459 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.93%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,990
• List price: $295,990
• Delta: -9.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21927 Maddaloni View Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,013 (+2%)	1mo	$352,990	$175	94
22002 Maddaloni View Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,922 (-3%)	1mo	$316,990	$165	91
21631 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,083 (+5%)	1mo	$343,990	$165	90
22214 San Lioni Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,908 (-4%)	1mo	$333,990	$175	90
22106 La Scorza Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-5%)	0mo	$307,990	$164	83
21934 Maddaloni View Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,162 (+9%)	1mo	$362,990	$168	82
22102 La Scorza Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-10%)	1mo	$324,990	$181	76
22026 Matera Vista Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,759 (-11%)	1mo	$299,990	$171	75
19619 San Severino Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,279 (+15%)	1mo	$320,990	$141	74
21639 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-12%)	1mo	$337,990	$193	74
21707 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+3%)	1mo	$300,000	$147	62
19446 Saint Green Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (+3%)	1mo	$306,990	$150	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-83,510
• Equity at exit: $48,755

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-130,542
• Equity at exit: $28,272

Cash invested: $91,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1790
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,481 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,715
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$409 /mo · $4,905/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,945

Max offer price $273,982

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-140	-5% $-253	+0% $-366	+5% $-479	+10% $-592
Rent	-10% $-562	-5% $-464	+0% $-366	+5% $-268	+10% $-170
Rate	-1.0pp $-202	-0.5pp $-283	base $-366	+0.5pp $-451	+1.0pp $-537

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,748
• Closing costs: $9,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,450	$1.17	23d	1	0.20mi
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	45d	1	0.46mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,876	$0.98	0d	1	0.49mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,901	$1.19	0d	1	0.54mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	0d	1	0.68mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	4d	1	0.79mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,712	$1.32	0d	1	0.92mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	3d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,990 Active 459 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,990 Active 456 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,990 Active 455 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,990 Active 454 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,990 Active 453 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,990 Active 451 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $295,990 Active 447 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,990 Active 447 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,990 Active 446 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,990 Active 445 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,990 Active 442 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,990 Active 441 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,990 Active 440 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,990 Active 439 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,990 Active 438 DOM
16. 2025-12-17
    price $315,990 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

17. 2025-03-19
    listed $317,990 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,317
• − Property taxes: −$4,905
• − Insurance: −$2,432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,382
• − Management: −$2,382
• − Depreciation: −$9,512
• Taxable loss: −$10,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,438
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $315,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-19 Listed $317,990 Zillow