42 Bittersweet · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$725,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,099 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1955 0.46 ac lot Est $778k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on the peaceful Peconic side of the community, near East Landing Beach, the business district and all the central South Fork has to offer. Hidden from the road, embraced by nature, with room for expansion and even a pool. Tremendous value!

Key facts

• Embraced by nature
• Room for expansion
• East landing beach

Tags

• EAST LANDING BEACH
• ROOM FOR EXPANSION
• EMBRACED BY NATURE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $725k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($54k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $725k).
• Recommended offer: $714k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $203k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($714k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $365k; list at $725k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $714,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.53%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $778,092
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 The Cres	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+9%)	19mo	$850,000	$708	55
147 Newtown Rd	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	996 (-9%)	21mo	$600,000	$602	53
10 Bittersweet Ave S	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,228 (+12%)	14mo	$927,500	$755	50
62 Squiretown Rd	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	23mo	$600,000	$568	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $229,253
• Equity at exit: $108,100

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $844,727
• Equity at exit: $62,685

Cash invested: $203,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,526 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,802
• Tax from tax record: −$513 /mo · $6,158/yr
• Insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,421
• Net cashflow: $4,489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,845

Max offer price $725,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,899	-5% $4,694	+0% $4,489	+5% $4,283	+10% $4,078
Rent	-10% $3,578	-5% $4,033	+0% $4,489	+5% $4,944	+10% $5,399
Rate	-1.0pp $4,854	-0.5pp $4,673	base $4,489	+0.5pp $4,301	+1.0pp $4,110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,250
• Closing costs: $21,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20A Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1073	$10,000	$9.32	15d	1	0.29mi
43B Old Squires Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$8,000	$6.67	15d	1	0.60mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	25d	1	0.95mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	21d	1	1.02mi
1 Woodview Way Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$5,500	$3.67	7d	1	1.45mi
3 Windmill Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	997	$5,000	$5.02	5d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-02-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-08
   listed $725,000 Active
3. 2025-01-11
   historical
4. 2024-11-27
   price $765,000
5. 2024-07-10
   listed $779,000 Active
6. 2004-08-04
   soldstatus $365,000
7. 1992-09-16
   soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,158 · $513/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,205 · $767/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,047/yr (+$254/mo · 49.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $138,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,611
• − Property taxes: −$6,158
• − Insurance: −$3,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,065
• − Management: −$11,065
• − Depreciation: −$21,091
• Taxable income: $44,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,728
• After-tax cash flow: $43,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+663.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Listed $725,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $765,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-10 Listed $779,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records
• 1992-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,158 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.