1604 E Mistletoe Ave · Victoria, TX 77901

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 956 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1954 5,301 sqft lot $104/sqft · 17% below area Est $120k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedrooms, Large living room. Open kitchen with pine cabinets. One car garage. No window units in property

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Convenient location
• 5,301 sq ft lot

Tags

• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• SPACIOUS YARD
• PLENTY OF NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: HardiPlank type siding; See remarks for additional construction details; Shingle, composition, metal, and mixed roof types; Slab foundation; Built (year per assessor)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Back yard fencing; City lot; Less than quarter acre; City street frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Gas cooktop; Oven; Range; Some gas appliances
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (multiple heating units); Has cooling (three or more units)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Pull-down attic stairs; Separate shower; Shower only; Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $99k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.89%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,636
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -17.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3401 Redwood Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	956 (0%)	2mo	$116,000	$121	84
1109 Manor Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0	988 (+3%)	2mo	$99,500	$101	65
1608 Sam Houston Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	920 (-4%)	3mo	$130,000	$141	63
811 E Rosebud Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,035 (+8%)	5mo	$164,000	$158	62
1310 E Rosebud Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,096 (+15%)	1mo	$130,000	$119	61
1106 Melrose Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,070 (+12%)	8mo	$81,000	$76	58
808 E E Polk	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,003 (+5%)	4mo	$110,000	$110	57
2402 E Walnut Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	999 (+4%)	3mo	$139,900	$140	55
2403 E Mimosa Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,071 (+12%)	6mo	$180,000	$168	45
1509 Bowie Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	917 (-4%)	21mo	$99,900	$109	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-9,144
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-7,435
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,004/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $921

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $187	+0% $159	+5% $131	+10% $103
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $115	+0% $159	+5% $204	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $184	base $159	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3001 Arroyo Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,330	$1.55	44d	4	0.53mi
1906 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	678	$1,255	$1.85	44d	9	0.54mi
118 Milann St Unit B Victoria, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,175	$1.26	44d	1	0.67mi
2303 N Louis St Unit 2303 Victoria, TX	3.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	44d	1	0.75mi
2303 N Louis St Unit 2307 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	820	$850	$1.04	44d	1	0.75mi
1605 Bexar Ave Victoria, TX	3.0	1.0	762	$1,395	$1.83	44d	1	0.85mi
111 Monterrey Dr Unit A Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,295	$1.28	44d	1	0.86mi
3104 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$975	$1.05	44d	2	0.93mi
2601 Leary Ln #14 Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	44d	1	0.94mi
2406 E Mockingbird Ln Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,062	$1.03	44d	4	1.07mi
1810 E Colorado St Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,112	$1.23	44d	8	1.10mi
1603 E Brazos St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$975	$1.22	44d	6	1.13mi
2107 N Ben Jordan St Victoria, TX	1.0	1.0	616	$745	$1.21	44d	1	1.14mi
903 Linwood Dr Victoria, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$899	$1.28	45d	1	1.18mi
903 Linwood Dr Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	44d	1	1.18mi
903 Linwood Dr Apt 406 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	866	$975	$1.13	44d	1	1.18mi
1303 E Colorado St Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	525	$675	$1.29	44d	1	1.22mi
301 Westwood St Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	987	$1,145	$1.16	44d	1	1.25mi
301 Westwood St Apt D Victoria, TX	2.0	1.5	987	$1,145	$1.16	44d	1	1.25mi
407 Versailles St Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,200	$1.19	44d	1	1.30mi
308 Westwood St Unit D Victoria, TX	2.0	1.5	1010	$1,175	$1.16	44d	1	1.32mi
203 Palmwood Dr Unit B Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,350	$1.22	44d	1	1.33mi
102 Palmwood Dr Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,045	$0.95	44d	1	1.33mi
306 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$1,370	$1.78	44d	4	1.39mi
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 209 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	974	$963	$0.99	44d	1	1.43mi
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 125 Victoria, TX	1.0	1.0	674	$863	$1.28	44d	1	1.43mi
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 220 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	974	$1,013	$1.04	44d	1	1.43mi
2402 N Ben Wilson St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,580	$1.60	44d	20	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $99,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $105,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $110,000 751-char remark
18. 2026-04-30
    listed $125,000 Active 751-char remark
19. 2018-08-07
    soldstatus
20. 2011-06-10
    soldstatus $41,000 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    3 bedrooms, Large living room. Open kitchen with pine cabinets. One car garage. No window units in property

21. 2011-06-10
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    3 bedrooms, Large living room. Open kitchen with pine cabinets. One car garage. No window units in property

22. 2010-01-22
    listed $53,000 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    3 bedrooms, Large living room. Open kitchen with pine cabinets. One car garage. No window units in property

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,004
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $389
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$93
• After-tax cash flow: $1,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+86.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $99,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $105,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $109,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $110,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $125,000 CTXMLS
• 2018-08-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-06-10 Sold (MLS) $41,000 CTXMLS
• 2010-01-22 Listed $53,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,004 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.