191 Refugio · La Ward, TX 77971

$68,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 1048 Days on market

Built 2007 Fair condition 6,751 sqft lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath 960 sq ft double wide mobile home built in 2007 in LAWARD Tx in the Industrial School District is up for sale. The home is a rental currently occupied. There is an open floor plan with a master bedroom and bathroom as well as two small bedrooms and a hall bathroom. This is a very good income producer or maybe a first-time home. Come see it!

Key facts

• 6,751 sq ft lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 1047 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($958 rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,349 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Industrial ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #61 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($474 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1048 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $60,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 1048 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.74%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $26,327
• Equity at exit: $30,801

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $68,440
• Equity at exit: $47,467

Cash invested: $19,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77971

• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$359
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $599

Max offer price $68,500

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,125
• Closing costs: $2,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $68,500 Active 1048 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $68,500 Active 1047 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $68,500 Active 1046 DOM
4. 2025-06-13
   price $68,500 359-char remark

   Show marketing remark (359 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath 960 sq ft double wide mobile home built in 2007 in LAWARD Tx in the Industrial School District is up for sale. The home is a rental currently occupied. There is an open floor plan with a master bedroom and bathroom as well as two small bedrooms and a hall bathroom. This is a very good income producer or maybe a first-time home. Come see it!

5. 2024-11-06
   price $72,500 359-char remark

   Show marketing remark (359 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath 960 sq ft double wide mobile home built in 2007 in LAWARD Tx in the Industrial School District is up for sale. The home is a rental currently occupied. There is an open floor plan with a master bedroom and bathroom as well as two small bedrooms and a hall bathroom. This is a very good income producer or maybe a first-time home. Come see it!

6. 2024-06-13
   price $87,000 359-char remark

   Show marketing remark (359 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath 960 sq ft double wide mobile home built in 2007 in LAWARD Tx in the Industrial School District is up for sale. The home is a rental currently occupied. There is an open floor plan with a master bedroom and bathroom as well as two small bedrooms and a hall bathroom. This is a very good income producer or maybe a first-time home. Come see it!

7. 2023-07-20
   listed $89,500 Active 359-char remark

   Show marketing remark (359 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath 960 sq ft double wide mobile home built in 2007 in LAWARD Tx in the Industrial School District is up for sale. The home is a rental currently occupied. There is an open floor plan with a master bedroom and bathroom as well as two small bedrooms and a hall bathroom. This is a very good income producer or maybe a first-time home. Come see it!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$920
• − Management: −$920
• − Depreciation: −$1,993
• Taxable income: $2,459
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$590
• After-tax cash flow: $2,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2007 manufactured home requires moderate updates to kitchen cabinets, bathroom fixtures, and exterior siding to improve its condition and appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — slight wear
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes and increases appeal
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes and increases appeal
• Both repair exterior siding — improves curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · moderate wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes and increases appeal ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes and increases appeal ↑
• Both repair exterior siding — improves curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Industrial ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824150
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,995
• Composite: 51.69/100
• National rank: #1693
• State rank: #61 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Ward

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1349
• US rank: #23270

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Ward, TX
• Population (ZIP): 716

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,579 people
• By 2030: 17,480 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 19,328 · +16.6%
• By 2050: 21,182 · +27.8%
• By 2075: 25,781 · +55.5%
• By 2100: 28,184 · +70.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 43%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: German 13%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.8) · D 14.3% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -70.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.8 2020: R+66.2 2016: R+63.7 2012: R+56.5 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $68,500 CTXMLS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $72,500 CTXMLS
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $87,000 CTXMLS
• 2023-07-20 Listed $89,500 CTXMLS