Jeffry Plan · Marana, AZ 85653

$435,990

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,444 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home is ready for modern lifestyles. On the first floor, an inviting open-concept layout blends the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a secluded bedroom tucked into a private rear corner. On the second level, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living area easily accessible from four additional bedrooms and a luxurious owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 22 days

🏗️ New construction. The $435,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $441,146.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $436k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-904 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (28.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#67 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marjorie W Estes Elementary School (math 20% / reading 26%, grade F, #673 of 1,109 statewide, top 61%, 570 students, 49% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 540 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($429k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $271,539 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.78%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,146
• List price: $435,990
• Delta: -1.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11501 W Red Admiral St	0.20mi	6/3.0	2,444 (0%)	2mo	$404,340	$165	88
11482 W Red Admiral St	0.22mi	6/3.0	2,444 (0%)	2mo	$409,990	$168	88
11761 W Flying Beauty Ln	0.15mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,624 (+7%)	3mo	$483,590	$184	72
13165 N Farming Way	0.19mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,624 (+7%)	2mo	$474,642	$181	70
11471 W Red Admiral St	0.24mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,126 (-13%)	0mo	$388,940	$183	60
11507 W Red Admiral St	0.20mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,126 (-13%)	3mo	$374,000	$176	59
11495 W Red Admiral St	0.21mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,126 (-13%)	3mo	$369,490	$174	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-127,808
• Equity at exit: $65,776

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-180,341
• Equity at exit: $38,142

Cash invested: $123,521 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.9 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $479,945 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 21 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 540
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,715 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,313
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$551 /mo · $6,617/yr
• Insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $-904

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,859

Max offer price $310,408

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-599	-5% $-751	+0% $-904	+5% $-1,056	+10% $-1,208
Rent	-10% $-1,118	-5% $-1,011	+0% $-904	+5% $-796	+10% $-689
Rate	-1.0pp $-681	-0.5pp $-791	base $-904	+0.5pp $-1,018	+1.0pp $-1,134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,286
• Closing costs: $13,234
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11495 W Red Admiral St Marana, AZ	5.0	3.0	2126	$2,145	$1.01	21d	1	0.20mi
11904 W Farmall Dr Marana, AZ	5.0	3.0	2903	$2,600	$0.90	66d	1	0.60mi
12171 W Amarissa Dr Marana, AZ	5.0	3.5	2920	$2,490	$0.85	35d	1	0.69mi
12171 W Amarissa Dr Marana, AZ	5.0	3.5	2920	$2,490	$0.85	25d	1	0.69mi
12442 W Lilliston Way Marana, AZ	5.0	3.0	1909	$2,199	$1.15	9d	1	1.09mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $434,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan named JeffrySingle-family property (Plan)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (modified May 21, 2026)
• Exterior features: Street address: 13136 N Corn Husk Trl, Marana AZ 85653

Interior

• Bedrooms: Six bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2444 total living area)6 bedrooms3 full bathrooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $435,990 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $435,990 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $435,990 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $435,990 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $435,990 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $435,990 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $435,990 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $435,990 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $435,990 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $435,990 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $435,990 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $435,990 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $435,990 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $435,990 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $435,990 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $435,990 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $435,990 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on marketlisting id $435,990 Active 1 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $435,990 Active 99 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $435,990 Active 98 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $435,990 Active 97 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $435,990 Active 96 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $435,990 Active 95 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $435,990 Active 94 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $435,990 Active 93 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $435,990 Active 92 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $435,990 Active 90 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $435,990 Active 89 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $435,990 Active 88 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $435,990 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $435,990 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $435,990 Active 84 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $435,990 Active 83 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $435,990 Active 82 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $435,990 Active 81 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $435,990 Active 80 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $435,990 Active 79 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $435,990 Active 77 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    pricedays on market $435,990 Active 75 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $434,990 Active 74 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $434,990 Active 71 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $434,990 Active 70 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $434,990 Active 69 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $434,990 Active 68 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $434,990 Active 66 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $434,990 Active 65 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $434,990 Active 63 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $434,990 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $434,990 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $434,990 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,711
• − Property taxes: −$6,617
• − Insurance: −$2,206
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,607
• − Management: −$2,607
• − Depreciation: −$12,833
• Taxable loss: −$18,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,559
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value. Consider painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, and adding smart home features to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and technologically advanced. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marjorie W Estes Elementary School F AZ #673/1,109 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Marana Middle School F AZ #97/218 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Marana High School F AZ #210/381 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Marana

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #11113

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marana, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 39,625
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $434,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan named JeffrySingle-family property (Plan)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (modified May 21, 2026)
• Exterior features: Street address: 13136 N Corn Husk Trl, Marana AZ 85653

Interior

• Bedrooms: Six bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2444 total living area)6 bedrooms3 full bathrooms