12122 Warm Springs Rd · Ellerslie, GA 31807

$39,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1974 0.76 ac lot $29/sqft · 87% below area ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile Home on Land- Great opportunity to own a mobile home on a spacious lot in the quiet Ellerslie area. Whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a buyer seeking affordable housing, this property offers strong potential. Situated on a generous piece of land, this mobile home provides privacy and room for improvements, expansion, or replacement. Ideal for renovation, rental income, or land hold. Peaceful setting with convenient access to Columbus Large lot with flexibility for future use Property is being sold as-is. Mobile home condition will require updates/repairs. Great value-add opportunity - bring your vision!

Key facts

• Privacy
• Mobile home on land
• Spacious lot

Tags

• MOBILE HOME ON LAND
• SPACIOUS LOT
• GENEROUS PIECE OF LAND
• PRIVACY
• ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENTS
• FLEXIBILITY FOR FUTURE USE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $722 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harris County (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #27 of 174 in GA (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 189 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.51%
• DSCR: 4.45
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,757
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -83.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $39,534
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.39×
• Total profit: $93,768
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31807

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $989/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $722

Break-even live

Break-even rent $390

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $39,900 Under Contract 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $39,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Price Change 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Price Change 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricestatusdays on market $39,900 Price Change 65 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    status Back On Market 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Mobile Home on Land- Great opportunity to own a mobile home on a spacious lot in the quiet Ellerslie area. Whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a buyer seeking affordable housing, this property offers strong potential. Situated on a generous piece of land, this mobile home provides privacy and room for improvements, expansion, or replacement. Ideal for renovation, rental income, or land hold. Peaceful setting with convenient access to Columbus Large lot with flexibility for future use Property is being sold as-is. Mobile home condition will require updates/repairs. Great value-add opportunity - bring your vision!

18. 2026-04-21
    status Under Contract 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Mobile Home on Land- Great opportunity to own a mobile home on a spacious lot in the quiet Ellerslie area. Whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a buyer seeking affordable housing, this property offers strong potential. Situated on a generous piece of land, this mobile home provides privacy and room for improvements, expansion, or replacement. Ideal for renovation, rental income, or land hold. Peaceful setting with convenient access to Columbus Large lot with flexibility for future use Property is being sold as-is. Mobile home condition will require updates/repairs. Great value-add opportunity - bring your vision!

19. 2026-04-11
    price $52,400 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Mobile Home on Land- Great opportunity to own a mobile home on a spacious lot in the quiet Ellerslie area. Whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a buyer seeking affordable housing, this property offers strong potential. Situated on a generous piece of land, this mobile home provides privacy and room for improvements, expansion, or replacement. Ideal for renovation, rental income, or land hold. Peaceful setting with convenient access to Columbus Large lot with flexibility for future use Property is being sold as-is. Mobile home condition will require updates/repairs. Great value-add opportunity - bring your vision!

20. 2026-04-02
    price $54,900 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Mobile Home on Land- Great opportunity to own a mobile home on a spacious lot in the quiet Ellerslie area. Whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a buyer seeking affordable housing, this property offers strong potential. Situated on a generous piece of land, this mobile home provides privacy and room for improvements, expansion, or replacement. Ideal for renovation, rental income, or land hold. Peaceful setting with convenient access to Columbus Large lot with flexibility for future use Property is being sold as-is. Mobile home condition will require updates/repairs. Great value-add opportunity - bring your vision!

21. 2026-03-25
    listed $59,900 New 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Mobile Home on Land- Great opportunity to own a mobile home on a spacious lot in the quiet Ellerslie area. Whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a buyer seeking affordable housing, this property offers strong potential. Situated on a generous piece of land, this mobile home provides privacy and room for improvements, expansion, or replacement. Ideal for renovation, rental income, or land hold. Peaceful setting with convenient access to Columbus Large lot with flexibility for future use Property is being sold as-is. Mobile home condition will require updates/repairs. Great value-add opportunity - bring your vision!

22. 2021-05-26
    soldstatus $75,000
23. 2021-05-18
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed 11-char remark

    Show marketing remark (11 chars)

    Mobile Home

24. 2021-04-29
    listed $75,000 11-char remark

    Show marketing remark (11 chars)

    Mobile Home

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$989
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,252
• − Management: −$1,252
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $8,557
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,054
• After-tax cash flow: $6,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harris County
• NCES district ID: 1302700
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 37.75/100
• National rank: #4350
• State rank: #27 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ellerslie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,596
• Population (ZIP): 2,596

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,683 people
• By 2030: 36,673 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 38,038 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 38,782 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 41,279 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 41,103 · +15.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.7% · R 72.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.4pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+44.3 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+45.6 2008: R+43.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.10%
• Current HPI: 154.6232
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-30.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $52,400 GAMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $54,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $59,900 GAMLS
• 2021-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-18 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CBOR
• 2021-04-29 Listed $75,000 CBOR

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $989 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.