1275 Holiday Ln · Holiday Lake, IA 52211

$275,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1967 0.37 ac lot $206/sqft · 11% above area Est $330k · 17% under $55/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your Private Lake Retreat Awaits! Experience the perfect blend of cozy comfort and "Lake Life" at 1275 Holiday Lane. Whether you’re looking for a permanent year-round residence or a peaceful weekend getaway, this ranch-style home delivers. The main floor features three spacious bedrooms and a bright family room, but the heart of the home is the open kitchen and living area—perfect for entertaining while taking in the serene, woodsy views of your backyard. Need more space? The finished walk-out lower level offers endless possibilities for a second living area, hobby room, or guest space. Situated on a double-sized footprint (including Lot 276!), you’ll enjoy rare privacy and nature right at your back door. With a brand-new roof, new retaining wall, and new central air, the big-ticket items are done—all that’s left is for you to move in and start enjoying the lake!

Key facts

• New retaining wall
• Brand-new roof
• Open kitchen

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• FINISHED WALK-OUT LOWER LEVEL
• DOUBLE-SIZED FOOTPRINT
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• NEW RETAINING WALL
• NEW CENTRAL AIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-875 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (56.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (56.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (56.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 1.8% in Holiday Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#524 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcom Community School District (rural): math 72% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #101 of 289 in IA (top 35%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcom Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #44 of 616 statewide, top 9%, 296 students, 34% FRL); Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcom Jr-Sr High School (math 64% / reading 68%, grade B, #200 of 336 statewide, top 60%, 265 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Poweshiek County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Poweshiek County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $275k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $119,935 (56.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.63%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 19.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,695
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -16.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5252 N Lakeshore Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-3%)	1mo	$475,000	$367	76
1015 Lakeshore Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (-3%)	12mo	$325,000	$251	73
1296 Holiday Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+1%)	22mo	$234,000	$174	67
1261 Holiday Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (-9%)	8mo	$189,000	$156	66
3122 Holiday Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	10mo	$270,000	$219	58
3021 E Lakeshore Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,294 (-3%)	15mo	$449,900	$348	56
5152 Aurora Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	7mo	$120,000	$104	41
3223 E Lakeshore Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (-11%)	18mo	$240,000	$203	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $67,491
• Equity at exit: $219,507

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $237,895
• Equity at exit: $446,220

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52211

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 19.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,526/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,307

Max offer price $120,477

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-719	-5% $-797	+0% $-875	+5% $-953	+10% $-1,030
Rent	-10% $-969	-5% $-922	+0% $-875	+5% $-827	+10% $-780
Rate	-1.0pp $-736	-0.5pp $-805	base $-875	+0.5pp $-946	+1.0pp $-1,018

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $275,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    price $279,900 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    Your Private Lake Retreat Awaits! Experience the perfect blend of cozy comfort and "Lake Life" at 1275 Holiday Lane. Whether you’re looking for a permanent year-round residence or a peaceful weekend getaway, this ranch-style home delivers. The main floor features three spacious bedrooms and a bright family room, but the heart of the home is the open kitchen and living area—perfect for entertaining while taking in the serene, woodsy views of your backyard. Need more space? The finished walk-out lower level offers endless possibilities for a second living area, hobby room, or guest space. Situated on a double-sized footprint (including Lot 276!), you’ll enjoy rare privacy and nature right at your back door. With a brand-new roof, new retaining wall, and new central air, the big-ticket items are done—all that’s left is for you to move in and start enjoying the lake!

19. 2026-03-20
    listed $290,000 Active 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    Your Private Lake Retreat Awaits! Experience the perfect blend of cozy comfort and "Lake Life" at 1275 Holiday Lane. Whether you’re looking for a permanent year-round residence or a peaceful weekend getaway, this ranch-style home delivers. The main floor features three spacious bedrooms and a bright family room, but the heart of the home is the open kitchen and living area—perfect for entertaining while taking in the serene, woodsy views of your backyard. Need more space? The finished walk-out lower level offers endless possibilities for a second living area, hobby room, or guest space. Situated on a double-sized footprint (including Lot 276!), you’ll enjoy rare privacy and nature right at your back door. With a brand-new roof, new retaining wall, and new central air, the big-ticket items are done—all that’s left is for you to move in and start enjoying the lake!

20. 2015-09-15
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,526 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,422 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: +$896/yr (+$75/mo · 35.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,526
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$15,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,810
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcom Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1905490
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,307
• Composite: 61.79/100
• National rank: #734
• State rank: #101 of 289 in IA

Livability — Holiday Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #11725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday Lake, IA
• Population (ZIP): 2,671

Population outlook (Poweshiek County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,601 people
• By 2030: 18,342 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 17,944 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 18,029 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 19,945 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 22,637 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: English 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Poweshiek

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: 11.8pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+13.3 2016: R+6.8 2012: D+9.1 2008: D+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.56%
• Current HPI: 332.4308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+249.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $279,900 DMMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $290,000 DMMLS
• 2015-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,526 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.