134-15 221 St · New York, NY 11413

$350,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1945 Est $651k · 46% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Detached 1 family colonial with 3 Bedrooms and Full bath.

Key facts

• Built 1945
• Listed 90 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $329k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 196 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $260k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $329,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.87%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $650,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22301 133rd Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$525,000	$456	89
220-35 135th Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,220 (+6%)	2mo	$613,333	$503	85
13158 223rd St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	1mo	$700,000	$648	76
13049 217th St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-1%)	4mo	$726,000	$635	72
216-24 132nd Ave	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,238 (+8%)	1mo	$577,000	$466	66
13315 231st St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,102 (-4%)	3mo	$740,000	$672	62
195-12 122nd Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,086 (-6%)	0mo	$560,000	$516	61
178-41 Crandall Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-3%)	1mo	$720,000	$643	61
130-31 218th St	0.41mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-10%)	3mo	$588,000	$565	57
130-55 222nd St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+12%)	4mo	$750,000	$582	57
135-21 Denis St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-8%)	4mo	$405,000	$384	52
135-01 232 St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,316 (+14%)	2mo	$680,000	$517	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-36,581
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-5,925
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11413

• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,276/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,959

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $514	-5% $415	+0% $316	+5% $217	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $51	-5% $183	+0% $316	+5% $449	+10% $581
Rate	-1.0pp $492	-0.5pp $405	base $316	+0.5pp $225	+1.0pp $133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21836 133rd Rd Springfield Gardens, NY	2.0	1.0	902	$2,895	$3.21	26d	1	0.14mi
13525 223rd St Laurelton, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,400	$2.83	26d	1	0.15mi
139-12 Springfield Blvd Unit 1 Jamaica, NY	3.0	4.0	840	$3,753	$4.47	26d	1	0.56mi
219-16 141st Ave Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	4.0	2.0	1050	$4,400	$4.19	26d	1	0.60mi
12054 194th St Saint Albans, NY	3.0	1.0	1099	$3,200	$2.91	26d	1	0.72mi
14334 222nd St Laurelton, NY	3.0	1.0	700	$2,900	$4.14	19d	1	0.85mi
20120 120th Ave Saint Albans, NY	3.0	2.0	1040	$3,500	$3.37	20d	1	0.88mi
24301 130th Ave Rosedale, NY	2.0	1.0	1456	$3,000	$2.06	26d	1	1.05mi
240-30 141st Ave Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$3,600	$4.50	20d	1	1.06mi
14519 220th St Springfield Gardens, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,800	$3.17	26d	1	1.11mi
19223 116th Rd Saint Albans, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$3,200	$4.00	26d	1	1.23mi
170-16 143rd Rd Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1125	$3,600	$3.20	26d	1	1.27mi
12606 172nd St Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1050	$3,200	$3.05	20d	1	1.28mi
248-13 139th Ave Unit 2F Jamaica, NY	4.0	2.0	1500	$4,000	$2.67	6d	1	1.31mi
249-10 139th Ave Unit 1 Jamaica, NY	4.0	2.0	1500	$4,600	$3.07	20d	1	1.34mi
146-38 230th Pl Unit 1st Floor Jamaica, NY	2.0	1.0	1389	$2,650	$1.91	5d	1	1.36mi
11516 199th St Saint Albans, NY	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,800	$3.80	26d	1	1.37mi
120-06 172nd St Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	900	$3,000	$3.33	26d	1	1.39mi
14720 226th St Springfield Gardens, NY	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,300	$3.00	22d	1	1.43mi
14516 Guy R Brewer Blvd Jamaica, NY	2.0	2.0	1350	$3,000	$2.22	3d	1	1.44mi
17203 119th Ave Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1090	$3,300	$3.03	26d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-02-27
   price $350,000
2. 2026-01-20
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-04
   price $599,000
4. 2025-09-04
   listed $610,000 Active
5. 2016-02-18
   historical
6. 2015-06-18
   listed $309,000
7. 2015-06-14
   historical
8. 2014-06-16
   listed $369,000
9. 2007-01-22
   soldstatus $375,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,276 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,096 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: +$819/yr (+$68/mo · 19.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,276
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,225
• − Management: −$3,225
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$1,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $4,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• City population: 7,731,280
• Population (ZIP): 45,072

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% White 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Mexico
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -390.89%
• Current HPI: 311.5327
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Listed $610,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-18 Listed $309,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-16 Listed $369,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,276 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.