18616 W Desert Hollow Dr · Surprise, AZ 85361

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2024 5,280 sqft lot $205/sqft · 5% below area Est $370k · 5% under $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in Ready! This NEW Energy-Star Certified Home has 1,703 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a full size 2 car garage! This home features a modern, neutral color palette, offering 36'' espresso shaker cabinetry, a large kitchen island, new, energy efficient stainless steel appliance package, and 9' ceilings throughout. This home prioritizes efficiency, with features such as dual pane low-E windows, insulated garage door, and a smart home system included. The exterior features front and back yard desert landscaping, a covered patio and private backyard.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Primary suite
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with $100 monthly fee (includes grounds maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2; 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction, painted exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Gravel/stone front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Has cooling (other)
• Interior features: Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-689 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (45.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Asante Preparatory Academy (math 29% / reading 43%, grade F, #456 of 1,109 statewide, top 41%, 1,004 students, 33% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,259 (45.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.44%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,899
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -5.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25254 N 184th Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,703 (-0%)	1mo	$385,000	$226	91
25180 N 184th Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,703 (-0%)	2mo	$379,990	$223	90
25148 N 184th Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,703 (-0%)	2mo	$379,990	$223	90
25116 N 184th Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,703 (-0%)	2mo	$394,990	$232	89
18637 W Bronco Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,601 (-6%)	1mo	$350,000	$219	88
18440 W Buckskin Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,703 (-0%)	1mo	$394,500	$232	87
25455 N 183rd Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,703 (-0%)	2mo	$394,990	$232	81
18448 W Buckskin Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,601 (-6%)	1mo	$399,990	$250	78
18408 W Buckskin Trl	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,743 (+2%)	1mo	$411,025	$236	78
18432 W Buckskin Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,601 (-6%)	1mo	$399,990	$250	77
18434 W Chama Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,601 (-6%)	0mo	$378,000	$236	72
18348 W Artemisa Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,507 (-12%)	0mo	$394,000	$261	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $146,631
• Equity at exit: $315,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $466,117
• Equity at exit: $679,973

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,520/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,795

Max offer price $228,271

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-491	-5% $-590	+0% $-689	+5% $-788	+10% $-887
Rent	-10% $-841	-5% $-765	+0% $-689	+5% $-613	+10% $-537
Rate	-1.0pp $-513	-0.5pp $-600	base $-689	+0.5pp $-780	+1.0pp $-872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18646 W Buckskin Trl Wittmann, AZ	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,000	$1.09	13d	1	0.14mi
18389 W Whispering Wind Dr Wittmann, AZ	3.0	2.0	1706	$1,900	$1.11	6d	1	0.48mi
18023 W Soft Wind Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,799	$1.16	25d	1	1.16mi
17770 W Red Bird Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1734	$1,900	$1.10	6d	1	1.33mi
17698 W Maya Way Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2115	$1,850	$0.87	4d	1	1.36mi
18372 W Villa Chula Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1856	$1,995	$1.07	19d	1	1.36mi
18372 W Villa Chula Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1856	$1,995	$1.07	25d	1	1.36mi
18460 W Jessie Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,050	$1.41	44d	1	1.38mi
18399 W Jessie Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,100	$0.55	6d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $350,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $350,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $360,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $360,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $383,000 638-char remark
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $395,000 Active 638-char remark
17. 2026-04-17
    soldstatus $395,000
18. 2024-02-15
    soldstatus $356,430 Closed 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Move in Ready! This NEW Energy-Star Certified Home has 1,703 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a full size 2 car garage! This home features a modern, neutral color palette, offering 36'' espresso shaker cabinetry, a large kitchen island, new, energy efficient stainless steel appliance package, and 9' ceilings throughout. This home prioritizes efficiency, with features such as dual pane low-E windows, insulated garage door, and a smart home system included. The exterior features front and back yard desert landscaping, a covered patio and private backyard.

19. 2024-01-26
    status Pending 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Move in Ready! This NEW Energy-Star Certified Home has 1,703 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a full size 2 car garage! This home features a modern, neutral color palette, offering 36'' espresso shaker cabinetry, a large kitchen island, new, energy efficient stainless steel appliance package, and 9' ceilings throughout. This home prioritizes efficiency, with features such as dual pane low-E windows, insulated garage door, and a smart home system included. The exterior features front and back yard desert landscaping, a covered patio and private backyard.

20. 2024-01-15
    listed $359,990 Active 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Move in Ready! This NEW Energy-Star Certified Home has 1,703 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a full size 2 car garage! This home features a modern, neutral color palette, offering 36'' espresso shaker cabinetry, a large kitchen island, new, energy efficient stainless steel appliance package, and 9' ceilings throughout. This home prioritizes efficiency, with features such as dual pane low-E windows, insulated garage door, and a smart home system included. The exterior features front and back yard desert landscaping, a covered patio and private backyard.

21. 2022-02-03
    soldstatus $8,208,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,310 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$790/yr (+$66/mo · 52.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$1,520
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$14,877
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,571
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• City population: 160,031
• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-95.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $360,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $383,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $395,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-15 Sold (MLS) $356,430 ARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-01-15 Listed $359,990 ARMLS
• 2022-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $8,208,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+134.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,520 · +2186.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.