10200 Johnson Rd #52 · Phelan, CA 92371

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 429 Days on market

Built 1985 4,000 sqft lot $75/sqft · 76% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

quiet and safe Phelan neighborhood, good location in the park. Manufactured home in a 55 and up. park conveniently located just minutes from shopping and restaurants in the heart of Phelan. With 2 beds, two bathrooms, and 1,056 square feet of living space with a newly replaced laminate floor. Shed storage. the house offers a special opportunity for affordable housing in its convenient location. Ready to move in very good condition. Sold it as is.

Key facts

• 4,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.6% vs local median 3.6% in Phelan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,215 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 429 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $79k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 429 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.46%
• DSCR: 5.03
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,986
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -76.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $131,926
• Equity at exit: $52,769

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.5%
• Equity multiple: 14.75×
• Total profit: $304,216
• Equity at exit: $98,498

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92371

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $219/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $1,668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $589

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11010 Valle Vista Rd Phelan, CA	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,700	$1.81	1d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 429 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 428 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 427 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 426 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 424 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 420 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 419 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 418 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $79,000 Active 415 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 414 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 413 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 412 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 411 DOM
14. 2026-02-20
    price $79,000 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    quiet and safe Phelan neighborhood, good location in the park. Manufactured home in a 55 and up. park conveniently located just minutes from shopping and restaurants in the heart of Phelan. With 2 beds, two bathrooms, and 1,056 square feet of living space with a newly replaced laminate floor. Shed storage. the house offers a special opportunity for affordable housing in its convenient location. Ready to move in very good condition. Sold it as is.

15. 2025-11-01
    status Active 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    quiet and safe Phelan neighborhood, good location in the park. Manufactured home in a 55 and up. park conveniently located just minutes from shopping and restaurants in the heart of Phelan. With 2 beds, two bathrooms, and 1,056 square feet of living space with a newly replaced laminate floor. Shed storage. the house offers a special opportunity for affordable housing in its convenient location. Ready to move in very good condition. Sold it as is.

16. 2025-10-22
    status Pending Sale 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    quiet and safe Phelan neighborhood, good location in the park. Manufactured home in a 55 and up. park conveniently located just minutes from shopping and restaurants in the heart of Phelan. With 2 beds, two bathrooms, and 1,056 square feet of living space with a newly replaced laminate floor. Shed storage. the house offers a special opportunity for affordable housing in its convenient location. Ready to move in very good condition. Sold it as is.

17. 2025-04-04
    listed $89,900 Active 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    quiet and safe Phelan neighborhood, good location in the park. Manufactured home in a 55 and up. park conveniently located just minutes from shopping and restaurants in the heart of Phelan. With 2 beds, two bathrooms, and 1,056 square feet of living space with a newly replaced laminate floor. Shed storage. the house offers a special opportunity for affordable housing in its convenient location. Ready to move in very good condition. Sold it as is.

18. 2020-02-21
    soldstatus $20,000 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Afordable 55+ Living in Phelan. Manufactured home in a 55+ park conveniently located just minutes from shopping and restaurants in the heart of Phelan. Featuring 2 beds, 2 baths and 1,056 sq ft of living space, this home offers a unique opportunity for affordable housing in a convenient location. Sq. Ft. not verified. Information deemed reliable, not guaranteed. Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: Storage ShedNONE Lot Location Type: Standard Location FireplaceFeatures: None Zoning: Residential 1 # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 0 # of RV Spaces: 0

19. 2019-11-05
    listed $25,000 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Afordable 55+ Living in Phelan. Manufactured home in a 55+ park conveniently located just minutes from shopping and restaurants in the heart of Phelan. Featuring 2 beds, 2 baths and 1,056 sq ft of living space, this home offers a unique opportunity for affordable housing in a convenient location. Sq. Ft. not verified. Information deemed reliable, not guaranteed. Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: Storage ShedNONE Lot Location Type: Standard Location FireplaceFeatures: None Zoning: Residential 1 # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 0 # of RV Spaces: 0

20. 2003-02-24
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $219 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $600 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$381/yr (+$32/mo · 173.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$219
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $19,878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,771
• After-tax cash flow: $15,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowline Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #9157
• State rank: #722 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Phelan

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1215
• US rank: #26148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phelan, CA
• City population: 21,678
• Population (ZIP): 21,678

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 45% Two or more races 22% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.62%
• Current HPI: 425.631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+364.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $79,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-22 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $89,900 CRMLS
• 2020-02-21 Sold (MLS) $20,000 CRMLS
• 2019-11-05 Listed $25,000 CRMLS
• 2003-02-24 Sold (MLS) $17,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $219 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.