12637 Bradbury Ave · Smithsburg, MD 21783

$59,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1921 0.71 ac lot $29/sqft · 81% below area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention Investors and Builders. Rare Opportunity with this 3 Level Colonial Situated on . 71 Acres. Expansive Lot Offers Endless Possibilities for Redevelopment, Renovation, or New Construction. Interior Features Spacious Bedrooms and a Fireplace, Providing a Foundation for a Potential Transformation. Property Requires a Complete Remodel or Consider a Tear Down to Build Your Dream Home in a Desirable Setting with Room to Expand. Exceptional Potential for Those Seeking a Value-Add Project or Custom Build Opportunity. Sold As-Is.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Complete remodel
• 3 level colonial

Tags

• 3 LEVEL COLONIAL
• EXPANSIVE LOT
• COMPLETE REMODEL
• CUSTOM BUILD OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Private septic tank
• Home design: Detached property; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Slab foundation; Built year recorded by assessor
• Exterior features: Detached structure; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (total)
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Oil-fired heating; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Full, unfinished basement; One fireplace; Two or more exits for accessibility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $916 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#85 in MD, #3,302 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtion County Public Schools (suburban): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #13 of 24 in MD (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Smithsburg Middle (math 13% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 225 statewide, top 47%, 534 students, 47% FRL); Smithsburg High (math 52% / reading 82%, grade B, #50 of 222 statewide, top 23%, 717 students, 46% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 26% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Washingtion County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.50%
• DSCR: 3.91
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,751
• List price: $59,900
• Delta: -80.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12637 Bradbury Ave	0.00mi	4/1.0	2,048 (0%)	1mo	$54,900	$27	100
25 N Main St N	0.62mi	4/1.5	1,992 (-3%)	12mo	$190,000	$95	54
12825 Bradbury Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (-12%)	9mo	$306,011	$169	50
129 Boswell Blvd	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,900 (-7%)	16mo	$435,000	$229	45
19 Amanda Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,090 (+2%)	19mo	$380,000	$182	39
4 Shifflett Pl	0.56mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,352 (+15%)	2mo	$475,000	$202	35
115 Kevins Ct	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,846 (-10%)	8mo	$380,000	$206	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $48,691
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.03×
• Total profit: $117,840
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21783

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,094/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $916

Break-even live

Break-even rent $650

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $59,900 Active 535-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,094 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,094 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$2,094
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $10,743
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,578
• After-tax cash flow: $8,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtion County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400660
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $54,784
• Composite: 22.87/100
• National rank: #8007
• State rank: #13 of 24 in MD

Livability — Smithsburg

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #3302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,881

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 151,614 people
• By 2030: 151,455 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 150,097 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 148,193 · -2.3%
• By 2075: 146,581 · -3.3%
• By 2100: 138,025 · -9.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.3% · R 60.4% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.9pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+20.9 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+12.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.03%
• Current HPI: 264.3117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Sold (MLS) $54,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,094 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.