808 53rd Ave E #9 · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34203

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1975 4,138 sqft lot Est $135k · 8% under $275/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

No Lot Rent!! Low Maintenance Fee!! Affordable Living!! Step into easy Florida living at Palm Lake Estates, a quiet, well-maintained 55+ community where comfort and convenience meet. This updated two-bedroom, two-bath home feels light and welcoming from the moment you walk in, with durable water-resistant vinyl plank flooring underfoot and newer windows that let the sunshine pour in. The modern kitchen is fresh and functional, featuring updated cabinets and countertops that make everyday cooking a pleasure. You’ll appreciate the peace of mind that comes with a 2023 A/C, an upgraded electric panel, and the rare benefit of NO LOT RENT. Life here is refreshingly simple, with a low mo

Key facts

• Updated cabinets
• Florida living
• Newer windows

Tags

• FLORIDA LIVING
• PALM LAKE ESTATES
• NEWER WINDOWS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• UPDATED CABINETS
• UPDATED COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.1 acre); Living area listed as 1,160 (public records); Building area total listed as 1,780 (public records); Foundation: crawlspace; Directions available
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Frankie and Judy) — monthly fees required; Condo/association fee: $275 monthly; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; Faces west; Entry on crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Roof over
• Exterior features: Storage; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Outside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, schools F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $125k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.52%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,360
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 53rd Ave E #22	0.12mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	2mo	$135,000	$141	89
808 53rd Ave E #8	0.01mi	2/1.5	872 (-9%)	13mo	$113,000	$130	72
808 53rd Ave E #67	0.09mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	5mo	$160,000	$185	71
808 53rd Ave E #66	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	7mo	$85,000	$80	70
808 53rd Ave E #277	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$188,000	$178	66
502 Bolivia Blvd	0.74mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	2mo	$124,900	$130	60
5202 5th B St E	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	12mo	$150,000	$142	58
403 52nd Avenue Plz W	0.71mi	2/1.0	846 (-12%)	1mo	$75,000	$89	47
4904 4th A St E	0.65mi	2/2.0	840 (-12%)	1mo	$60,000	$71	44
206 50th Avenue Ter W	0.67mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	14mo	$153,000	$177	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,720
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $882
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34203

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5613 8th St Ct E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	23d	1	0.33mi
716 56th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	3d	1	0.38mi
110 52nd Avenue Ter E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	684	$1,450	$2.12	23d	1	0.45mi
205 52nd Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	23d	1	0.63mi
5719 14th St E Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	978	$1,425	$1.46	3d	1	0.63mi
5828 3rd St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,995	$1.93	23d	1	0.67mi
4903 2nd B St E Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	624	$2,400	$3.85	23d	1	0.72mi
1109 59th Avenue Cir E Unit 1109 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,795	$1.90	23d	1	0.75mi
1345 301 Blvd E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,320	$1.51	23d	9	0.85mi
503 51st Ave W Unit 503 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	882	$1,275	$1.45	23d	1	0.86mi
503 51st Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	882	$1,075	$1.22	11d	1	0.86mi
5580 Fountain Lake Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$1,908	$1.81	2d	38	0.90mi
608 51st Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	760	$2,200	$2.89	23d	1	0.92mi
5502 8th Street Ct W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,595	$1.78	23d	1	0.94mi
1022 61st Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	970	$1,450	$1.49	16d	1	0.98mi
202 46th Avenue Ter W #409 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,995	$1.84	23d	1	1.02mi
4810 Ho Wil Ln Unit 4810 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,600	$2.04	23d	1	1.02mi
203 46th Avenue Ter W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	880	$1,099	$1.25	3d	1	1.03mi
707 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	730	$1,150	$1.58	23d	1	1.03mi
304 47th Avenue Dr W #112 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	23d	1	1.05mi
1207 62nd Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1018	$1,995	$1.96	23d	1	1.07mi
6205 12th Street Ct E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1018	$1,895	$1.86	23d	1	1.10mi
4630 5th St W Ste 6 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	11d	1	1.12mi
3 Date Ave Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	23d	1	1.14mi
1007 57th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	967	$1,495	$1.55	10d	1	1.14mi
915 50th Avenue Plz W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	23d	1	1.14mi
4507 3rd Street Cir W #280 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	660	$1,300	$1.97	16d	1	1.15mi
655 Park Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.5	816	$1,100	$1.35	23d	1	1.16mi
512 60th Avenue Ter W Unit 512 Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.5	972	$1,900	$1.95	10d	1	1.16mi
3808 11th St E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	23d	1	1.38mi
5030 26th St E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$1,945	$1.77	23d	12	1.43mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	3d	1	1.44mi
605 64th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,250	$1.59	11d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-03-19
   status Active
3. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-06
   listed $125,000 Active
5. 2025-12-31
   historical
6. 2025-12-16
   price $134,900
7. 2025-11-22
   price $139,900
8. 2025-11-05
   price $152,900
9. 2025-10-01
   listed $162,900 Active
10. 2025-08-31
    historical
11. 2025-06-26
    price $164,900
12. 2025-01-29
    listed $172,000 Active
13. 2007-04-06
    soldstatus $70,000
14. 2004-04-05
    soldstatus $45,000
15. 2003-02-05
    soldstatus $48,000
16. 1996-03-19
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$472
• After-tax cash flow: $3,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,618
• Household income: $70,761
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1469.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.87%
• Current HPI: 295.8871
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $152,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listed $162,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-29 Listed $172,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,230 · +324.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.