43851 State Route 3 · Natural Bridge, NY 13665

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 234 Days on market

Built 1880 0.32 ac lot $53/sqft · 71% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for the perfect project? Look no further! This 4 bedroom, 1 full bath home with a large detached garage is nestled in the beautiful Adirondack Foothills. Offering easy commuting access to Fort Drum- just 20 minutes away! This property combines convenience with small-town charm. With its solid bones and great location, this home is the ideal canvas to create your true dream home. Let your vision run wild and bring this property to life!

Key facts

• Solid bones
• Great location
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• EASY COMMUTING ACCESS
• SOLID BONES
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,057 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, schools D, health & safety D.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $658 appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $75k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.00%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,790
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -71.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $29,979
• Equity at exit: $25,125

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $77,156
• Equity at exit: $33,021

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13665

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,742/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $721

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 224 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 222 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 219 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 218 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 217 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 216 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 215 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 214 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $75,000 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Looking for the perfect project? Look no further! This 4 bedroom, 1 full bath home with a large detached garage is nestled in the beautiful Adirondack Foothills. Offering easy commuting access to Fort Drum- just 20 minutes away! This property combines convenience with small-town charm. With its solid bones and great location, this home is the ideal canvas to create your true dream home. Let your vision run wild and bring this property to life!

18. 2026-02-26
    price $78,000 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Looking for the perfect project? Look no further! This 4 bedroom, 1 full bath home with a large detached garage is nestled in the beautiful Adirondack Foothills. Offering easy commuting access to Fort Drum- just 20 minutes away! This property combines convenience with small-town charm. With its solid bones and great location, this home is the ideal canvas to create your true dream home. Let your vision run wild and bring this property to life!

19. 2025-11-20
    price $79,000 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Looking for the perfect project? Look no further! This 4 bedroom, 1 full bath home with a large detached garage is nestled in the beautiful Adirondack Foothills. Offering easy commuting access to Fort Drum- just 20 minutes away! This property combines convenience with small-town charm. With its solid bones and great location, this home is the ideal canvas to create your true dream home. Let your vision run wild and bring this property to life!

20. 2025-10-28
    listed $81,000 Active 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Looking for the perfect project? Look no further! This 4 bedroom, 1 full bath home with a large detached garage is nestled in the beautiful Adirondack Foothills. Offering easy commuting access to Fort Drum- just 20 minutes away! This property combines convenience with small-town charm. With its solid bones and great location, this home is the ideal canvas to create your true dream home. Let your vision run wild and bring this property to life!

21. 2009-05-21
    soldstatus $28,000
22. 2008-12-05
    listed $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,742 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,742 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,742
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $4,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — Natural Bridge

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1057
• US rank: #21119

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing D+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natural Bridge, NY
• Population (ZIP): 686

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% German 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Current HPI: 379.8545
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+158.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $75,000 CNYIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $78,000 CNYIS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $79,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $81,000 CNYIS
• 2009-05-21 Sold (MLS) $28,000 CNYIS
• 2008-12-05 Listed $29,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,742 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.