5 Hay St · Alva, FL 33920

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,106 sqft · Condo public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1980 $320/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Unit is 55+ Riverfront Mobile Home Park. You will fall in love with Oak Park come enjoy sunsets and happy hour by the pool with great people. Rent your own boat slip or just store your boat and trailer it in using Oak Parks private boat ramp. Unit has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, covered parking for one car, storage and great lanai/Florida Room for relaxing and enjoying the beautilful Florida weather. Easily rented seasonally or annually. Make an offer today!

Key facts

• Helicopter pad
• Fishing pier
• Community pool

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• MARINA
• FISHING PIER
• BOAT STORAGE
• HELICOPTER PAD
• PICKLEBALL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: On-site management; Part of a 200-unit community; Zoning: MHC-1; Lot is rectangular (approx. 0.11 acres, appraiser source)
• Financial info: Pets allowed conditionally (call); up to 2 pets, maximum 30 lbs
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association fee includes management, legal/accounting, grounds maintenance, road maintenance, street lights, security, trash and water; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, boat facilities (dock, ramp, slip), marina, RV/boat storage, pier, picnic and barbecue areas, pickleball, shuffleboard, guest suites, boat storage

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1 covered carport space
• Security: Community security (included in association)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable not available; High-speed internet available; Solar panels
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Entry level 1; Faces south; Exposed to the north
• Construction: Tile roof; Vinyl siding; Resale condition
• Exterior features: Outbuilding; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Freezer; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Guest quarters
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in features; Living/dining room; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Single-hung windows; Window coverings; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in garage; Dryer hookup in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#514 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 456 active listings in the ZIP; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $129k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.26%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $912
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $29,513
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33920

• Home prices YoY: -11.8%
• Active inventory: 456
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,963 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$320
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,534

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $384	+0% $339	+5% $294	+10% $250
Rent	-10% $184	-5% $261	+0% $339	+5% $416	+10% $494
Rate	-1.0pp $404	-0.5pp $372	base $339	+0.5pp $306	+1.0pp $272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $320 · $3,840/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-05-20
    price $129,000
13. 2026-04-09
    listed $135,000 Active
14. 2015-10-16
    price $47,000 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Great Unit is 55+ Riverfront Mobile Home Park. You will fall in love with Oak Park come enjoy sunsets and happy hour by the pool with great people. Rent your own boat slip or just store your boat and trailer it in using Oak Parks private boat ramp. Unit has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, covered parking for one car, storage and great lanai/Florida Room for relaxing and enjoying the beautilful Florida weather. Easily rented seasonally or annually. Make an offer today!

15. 2015-10-16
    soldstatus $47,000 Sold 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Great Unit is 55+ Riverfront Mobile Home Park. You will fall in love with Oak Park come enjoy sunsets and happy hour by the pool with great people. Rent your own boat slip or just store your boat and trailer it in using Oak Parks private boat ramp. Unit has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, covered parking for one car, storage and great lanai/Florida Room for relaxing and enjoying the beautilful Florida weather. Easily rented seasonally or annually. Make an offer today!

16. 2015-10-13
    price $49,000 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Great Unit is 55+ Riverfront Mobile Home Park. You will fall in love with Oak Park come enjoy sunsets and happy hour by the pool with great people. Rent your own boat slip or just store your boat and trailer it in using Oak Parks private boat ramp. Unit has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, covered parking for one car, storage and great lanai/Florida Room for relaxing and enjoying the beautilful Florida weather. Easily rented seasonally or annually. Make an offer today!

17. 2015-10-05
    status Pending With Contingencies 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Great Unit is 55+ Riverfront Mobile Home Park. You will fall in love with Oak Park come enjoy sunsets and happy hour by the pool with great people. Rent your own boat slip or just store your boat and trailer it in using Oak Parks private boat ramp. Unit has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, covered parking for one car, storage and great lanai/Florida Room for relaxing and enjoying the beautilful Florida weather. Easily rented seasonally or annually. Make an offer today!

18. 2015-09-25
    price $49,000 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Great Unit is 55+ Riverfront Mobile Home Park. You will fall in love with Oak Park come enjoy sunsets and happy hour by the pool with great people. Rent your own boat slip or just store your boat and trailer it in using Oak Parks private boat ramp. Unit has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, covered parking for one car, storage and great lanai/Florida Room for relaxing and enjoying the beautilful Florida weather. Easily rented seasonally or annually. Make an offer today!

19. 2015-06-29
    price $54,000 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Great Unit is 55+ Riverfront Mobile Home Park. You will fall in love with Oak Park come enjoy sunsets and happy hour by the pool with great people. Rent your own boat slip or just store your boat and trailer it in using Oak Parks private boat ramp. Unit has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, covered parking for one car, storage and great lanai/Florida Room for relaxing and enjoying the beautilful Florida weather. Easily rented seasonally or annually. Make an offer today!

20. 2015-04-23
    listed $59,000 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Great Unit is 55+ Riverfront Mobile Home Park. You will fall in love with Oak Park come enjoy sunsets and happy hour by the pool with great people. Rent your own boat slip or just store your boat and trailer it in using Oak Parks private boat ramp. Unit has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, covered parking for one car, storage and great lanai/Florida Room for relaxing and enjoying the beautilful Florida weather. Easily rented seasonally or annually. Make an offer today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − HOA: −$3,840
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $2,384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$572
• After-tax cash flow: $3,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alva

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #514
• US rank: #9471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alva, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,689

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 5% German 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.83%
• Current HPI: 355.9229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+118.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $129,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $135,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-10-16 Price Changed $47,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-10-16 Sold (MLS) $47,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-10-13 Price Changed $49,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-10-05 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2015-09-25 Price Changed $49,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-06-29 Price Changed $54,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-04-23 Listed $59,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

-7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $237 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.