9713 Kebler Rd #28 · Orchard City, CO 81410

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $70k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

1998 Bellavista Manufactured Home. 1056 Square feet, 3 bedroom, 2 full baths. This home has been cared for and shows it. Nice covered deck, amazing views. Includes a12x20 storage shed/workshop and a 20x20 carport. Grape vines, fruit trees, lawn and landscaping as well. This home is located in Cherry Acres Mobile Park in Austin, CO. Current lot rent is $458.00 per month. Water and septic are billed monthly in addition to the lot fee. Buyer will need to contact Cherry Acres to fill out an application for approval prior to closing. Manufactured Home Only. No Real Estate shall be conveyed.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Storage shed
• Workshop

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• ESTABLISHED GRAPEVINES
• FRUIT TREES
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• STORAGE SHED
• WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Cherry Acres Mobile Home Park (homeowners association)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Community/coop sewer and septic tank; Electricity available; Natural gas available; High-speed internet available; Cellular phone reception
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home; One-story; Entry level: main level; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation with skirting
• Exterior features: Deck; Sprinkler/irrigation; Landscaped yard; Shed(s); Backs to greenbelt/park; Adjacent to open space; Located on a cul-de-sac; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Linoleum; Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Double-pane vinyl windows; Eat-in kitchen; Main level primary bedroom; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 1.9% in Orchard City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#316 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Delta County Joint District No. 50 (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #38 of 86 in CO (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Delta County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Delta County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.82%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,696
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9925 Kremmling Rd #22	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-1%)	11mo	$69,000	$66	79
19866 Joy Rd #2	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+9%)	15mo	$64,000	$56	64
20028 Justice Rd	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-10%)	2mo	$52,000	$55	61
19922 Jay Rd	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-11%)	3mo	$262,000	$280	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $62,958
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.00×
• Total profit: $168,059
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81410

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on marketlisting id $75,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-05-07
   status Active
9. 2026-03-25
   listed $75,000 Active
10. 2025-06-11
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    1998 Bellavista Manufactured Home. 1056 Square feet, 3 bedroom, 2 full baths. This home has been cared for and shows it. Nice covered deck, amazing views. Includes a12x20 storage shed/workshop and a 20x20 carport. Grape vines, fruit trees, lawn and landscaping as well. This home is located in Cherry Acres Mobile Park in Austin, CO. Current lot rent is $458.00 per month. Water and septic are billed monthly in addition to the lot fee. Buyer will need to contact Cherry Acres to fill out an application for approval prior to closing. Manufactured Home Only. No Real Estate shall be conveyed.

11. 2025-04-30
    listed $65,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    1998 Bellavista Manufactured Home. 1056 Square feet, 3 bedroom, 2 full baths. This home has been cared for and shows it. Nice covered deck, amazing views. Includes a12x20 storage shed/workshop and a 20x20 carport. Grape vines, fruit trees, lawn and landscaping as well. This home is located in Cherry Acres Mobile Park in Austin, CO. Current lot rent is $458.00 per month. Water and septic are billed monthly in addition to the lot fee. Buyer will need to contact Cherry Acres to fill out an application for approval prior to closing. Manufactured Home Only. No Real Estate shall be conveyed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,157
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$758
• After-tax cash flow: $3,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delta County Joint District No. 50
• NCES district ID: 0803330
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,741
• Composite: 30.33/100
• National rank: #6268
• State rank: #38 of 86 in CO

Livability — Orchard City

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #22198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orchard City, CO
• City population: 1,557
• Population (ZIP): 1,557

Population outlook (Delta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,529 people
• By 2030: 25,951 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 22,510 · -18.2%
• By 2050: 19,460 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 14,030 · -49.0%
• By 2100: 9,093 · -67.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Slovak 6% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.5) · D 31.0% · R 66.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -35.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.5 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+45.2 2012: R+39.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.66%
• Current HPI: 220.5691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+15.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — cren
• 2026-03-25 Listed $75,000 cren
• 2025-06-11 Sold (MLS) $65,000 cren
• 2025-04-30 Listed $65,000 cren

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $102 · +230.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.