9712 Solitary Sandpiper St · Creedmoor, TX 78610

$292,462

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,338 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,998 sqft lot $125/sqft · 21% below area Est $369k · 21% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW CONSTRUCTION BY STARLIGHT HOMES! Available NOW! As you enter from the covered porch, you’re greeted by a flex room. Continuing through the main level, you pass a powder bath and the two-car garage before stepping into the open kitchen, dining area, and family room. A back patio is located just off the dining area. Upstairs, a spacious loft connects three additional bedrooms—each with a walk-in closet—and a shared bath. The laundry room is conveniently located just outside these bedrooms. On the opposite side of the loft, you’ll find the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Dining area
• Family room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FLEX ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• FAMILY ROOM
• BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Creedmoor — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,353 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1002 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($284k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,169 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.24%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,392
• List price: $292,462
• Delta: -20.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9712 Solitary Sandpiper St	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,338 (0%)	0mo	$292,462	$125	100
9801 Serene Bliss Ln	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,302 (-2%)	1mo	$399,370	$173	87
9704 Serene Bliss Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,302 (-2%)	8mo	$425,000	$185	80
9720 Serene Bliss Ln	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,302 (-2%)	6mo	$399,900	$174	79
9724 Serene Bliss Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,484 (+6%)	3mo	$399,900	$161	79
9725 Serene Bliss Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,158 (-8%)	5mo	$409,868	$190	71
9713 Serene Bliss Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,105 (-10%)	7mo	$405,900	$193	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-68,277
• Equity at exit: $43,607

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-103,848
• Equity at exit: $25,287

Cash invested: $81,889 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1002
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,534
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,387/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,622

Max offer price $260,453

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,116
• Closing costs: $8,774
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10615 Ridan Way Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,200	$1.31	1d	1	0.85mi
6603 Smarty Jones Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2557	$2,195	$0.86	10d	1	0.99mi
6915 Tiznow Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$2,300	$1.25	1d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION BY STARLIGHT HOMES! Available NOW! As you enter from the covered porch, you’re greeted by a flex room. Continuing through the main level, you pass a powder bath and the two-car garage before stepping into the open kitchen, dining area, and family room. A back patio is located just off the dining area. Upstairs, a spacious loft connects three additional bedrooms—each with a walk-in closet—and a shared bath. The laundry room is conveniently located just outside these bedrooms. On the opposite side of the loft, you’ll find the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

2. 2026-04-22
   price $292,462 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION BY STARLIGHT HOMES! Available NOW! As you enter from the covered porch, you’re greeted by a flex room. Continuing through the main level, you pass a powder bath and the two-car garage before stepping into the open kitchen, dining area, and family room. A back patio is located just off the dining area. Upstairs, a spacious loft connects three additional bedrooms—each with a walk-in closet—and a shared bath. The laundry room is conveniently located just outside these bedrooms. On the opposite side of the loft, you’ll find the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

3. 2026-04-03
   listed $342,490 Active 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION BY STARLIGHT HOMES! Available NOW! As you enter from the covered porch, you’re greeted by a flex room. Continuing through the main level, you pass a powder bath and the two-car garage before stepping into the open kitchen, dining area, and family room. A back patio is located just off the dining area. Upstairs, a spacious loft connects three additional bedrooms—each with a walk-in closet—and a shared bath. The laundry room is conveniently located just outside these bedrooms. On the opposite side of the loft, you’ll find the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,382
• − Property taxes: −$4,387
• − Insurance: −$1,462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,248
• − Management: −$2,248
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,508
• Taxable loss: −$7,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,856
• After-tax cash flow: $-798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and modern amenities, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters.
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Creedmoor

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1353
• US rank: #23312

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Creedmoor, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $292,462 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $342,490 Unlock MLS