923 Nelson St · Denison, TX 75020

$185,000

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1930 7,501 sqft lot $118/sqft · 17% below area Est $224k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS ONE IS A LOT FOR THE $$$. Spacious rooms include, Living Room, Five Bedrooms (2 down and 3 up), Kitchen has loads of cabinets, separate Dining Room offers old style Butlers Pantry, Utility Room for full size washer, dryer and space for a freezer. A few years ago the home had several major updates, electrical, plumbing, some leveling, floor coverings, sheetrock replaced, hot water heater replaced along with CH & A. Ceiling fans thru out the home. Several extra closets for added storage. Large front porch and large rear wood deck is covered. Dog run at back of property. Alley access. Enjoy many hours in the metal, 720 sq ft, insulated Workshop. Overhead double door and regular size d

Key facts

• Alley access
• Utility room
• Large front porch

Tags

• BUTLERS PANTRY
• UTILITY ROOM
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• LARGE REAR WOOD DECK
• DOG RUN
• ALLEY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Easements for utilities; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 150; Lot listed as less than 0.5 acre
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Covered parking (2 covered spaces); 2-car carport spaces; Driveway with alley access; Side-by-side and tandem parking options
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas available; Cable available; All-weather road; Alley access; Curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single-family residence (residential); Two stories; Property attached: yes; Subdivision: Millers 2nd
• Construction: Built in 1930 (preowned); Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Covered front porch; Roof-top deck/patio; Dog run / kennel; Workshop with electric; Chain-link and partial cross fencing; Cross-fenced yard; Few trees, level interior lot in a subdivision; Alley access and curbs; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Vented exhaust fan; Built-in cabinets
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms total (primary bedroom on main level; additional bedrooms on main and second levels)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Cable TV and high-speed internet available; Pantry; Built-in cabinets in kitchen and primary bath; Butler's pantry off dining room; Room for freezer and separate utility room
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Full-size washer/dryer area; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.8% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Denison ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #315 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Houston El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 286 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 485 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.51%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,506
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -17.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 W Munson St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-8%)	18mo	$155,000	$107	48
1309 W Morton St	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,739 (+11%)	5mo	$125,000	$72	38
830 W Bond St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (+10%)	20mo	$175,000	$101	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-20,402
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,773
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75020

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 485
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,942 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,992/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,641

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $290	+0% $238	+5% $185	+10% $133
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $161	+0% $238	+5% $314	+10% $391
Rate	-1.0pp $331	-0.5pp $285	base $238	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1921 Ave a Denison, TX	4.0	3.0	1700	$1,995	$1.17	44d	1	1.25mi
1931 Ave a Denison, TX	4.0	3.0	1450	$1,695	$1.17	44d	1	1.26mi
521 E Sears St Denison, TX	4.0	2.0	1401	$1,650	$1.18	44d	1	1.33mi
1730 S Center St Denison, TX	4.0	1.5	1700	$1,500	$0.88	44d	1	1.42mi
531 W Collins St Unit NA Denison, TX	4.0	2.0	1080	$1,560	$1.44	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $185,000 Active 924-char remark
19. 1998-11-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,992 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,992
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,864
• − Management: −$1,864
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$86
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21
• After-tax cash flow: $2,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denison ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816710
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,650
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4629
• State rank: #315 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denison

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #5428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denison, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 34,008
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,835
• Household income: $71,605
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.96%
• Current HPI: 257.1806
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 1998-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,992 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.