1750 South Main St #109 · Willits, CA 95490

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 1968 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Listing Video: https://youtu. be/Oef0b1l3SOA Cozy 500 sq ft single-wide mobile home nestled in the well-established Willits Mobile Home Park an all-ages community. This 1968 home is a fantastic sweat equity opportunity featuring a brand new roof and solid bones ready for your personal touch. Priced for the buyer who wants to build value. Enjoy a great community with amenities including a clubhouse and pool. Conveniently located steps from Grocery Outlet, Dollar Tree, and nearby pizza and dining. Public water, public sewer, and PG & E electric.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Pool
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• WELL-ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Willits area; Not a land-lease property
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Home design: Manufactured in park property
• Exterior features: Manufactured home located in a park

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 total bathroom (1 full)
• Interior features: Single full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $723 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 2.6% in Willits — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#377 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Willits Unified (town): math 9% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #486 of 517 in CA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.87%
• DSCR: 4.06
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $38,785
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.39×
• Total profit: $93,159
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95490

• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,257
• − Management: −$1,257
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $8,465
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,032
• After-tax cash flow: $6,646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

A 1968 single-wide mobile home with a new roof and solid bones, requiring moderate repairs and updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Paint interior walls — Improves the home's appearance and value.
• Both Replace carpet in bedroom — Updates the bedroom and improves comfort.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and in need of repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Improves the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedroom — Updates the bedroom and improves comfort. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willits Unified
• NCES district ID: 0642560
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,494
• Composite: 14.14/100
• National rank: #9455
• State rank: #486 of 517 in CA

Livability — Willits

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #12923

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willits, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,627

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 18% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -233.81%
• Current HPI: 155.0788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $45,000 BAREIS