109 Ticonderoga Dr · Centerville, GA 31008

$115,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,280 sqft · Other public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2001

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

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Key facts

• Large front yard
• Central heat and air
• Large backyard

Tags

• LARGE FRONT YARD
• LARGE BACKYARD
• LAND INCLUDED
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $942 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 5.8% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#56 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $115k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.12%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $41,367
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $113,229
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31008

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $732/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $942

Break-even live

Break-even rent $901

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
156 Amelia Dr Byron, GA	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,300	$1.05	13d	1	0.13mi
807 Citrona Dr Byron, GA	4.0	2.5	2164	$2,020	$0.93	43d	1	0.22mi
807 Citrona Dr Byron, GA	4.0	2.5	2164	$2,020	$0.93	21d	1	0.22mi
112 Rock Run Trl Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.5	2376	$2,295	$0.97	43d	1	0.66mi
109 Flat Rock Mill Trl Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.5	2014	$2,125	$1.06	13d	1	0.82mi
112 Flat Rock Mill Trl Warner Robins, GA	4.0	3.0	2376	$2,225	$0.94	43d	1	0.83mi
308 Silver Maple Ln Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.5	1865	$2,095	$1.12	43d	1	0.87mi
130 English Oak Ln Warner Robins, GA	4.0	3.0	1923	$2,195	$1.14	43d	1	0.91mi
111 Brighton Dr Byron, GA	3.0	2.0	1782	$1,500	$0.84	43d	1	0.96mi
111 Brighton Dr Byron, GA	3.0	2.0	1782	$1,400	$0.79	21d	1	0.96mi
104 Village Walk Centerville, GA	3.0	2.0	1887	$1,950	$1.03	43d	1	1.03mi
307 Timberwind Dr Byron, GA	3.0	2.5	1908	$1,850	$0.97	13d	1	1.10mi
121 Limestone Trl Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1719	$1,850	$1.08	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $115,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$326/yr (+$27/mo · 44.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$732
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $10,015
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,404
• After-tax cash flow: $8,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #5374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,312
• Population (ZIP): 20,882

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 27% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.93%
• Current HPI: 208.0889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+32.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $115,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-03-23 Sold (MLS) $72,000 CGMLS
• 2018-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-23 Sold (MLS) $72,000 GAMLS
• 2018-01-17 Listed $72,000 GAMLS
• 2018-01-17 Listed $72,000 CGMLS
• 2001-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $732 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.