95 Millstone Ln · Stanardsville, VA 22973

$346,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2004 9,583 sqft lot Est $347k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy easy one-level living in this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an open floor plan designed for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The spacious living area is highlighted by vaulted ceilings and skylights that fill the home with natural light, while gleaming hardwood floors add warmth and character throughout. The kitchen is the heart of the home, complete with a deep farm sink and a large center island offering abundant prep space and seating. The covered front porch and rear deck provide extra space for entertaining/grilling or just chatting with so many nice neighbors. Situated on a peaceful . 22-acre lot in a quiet neighborhood, this home combines

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious living area
• One level living

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHTS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One story
• Construction: Stick built with vinyl siding; Block foundation; Architectural roof; Crawl space basement; Built using public records information
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Porch; Awning(s); Shed(s); Garden; Open lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Recessed lighting; Vaulted ceilings; Skylights; Primary bedroom on main level; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $347k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($15/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.8% in Stanardsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#243 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nathanael Greene Primary (347 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $207k; list at $347k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,000 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,200
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9305 Spotswood Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+7%)	0mo	$359,000	$239	64
33 Barrington Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	8mo	$349,900	$260	64
10307 Spotswood Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	11mo	$185,000	$148	52
10589 Spotswood Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-8%)	8mo	$319,900	$248	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-56,261
• Equity at exit: $51,724

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-49,408
• Equity at exit: $29,994

Cash invested: $97,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22973

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,819
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,922/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,688

Max offer price $346,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $99	+0% $1	+5% $-97	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-211	-5% $-105	+0% $1	+5% $107	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $89	base $1	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,725
• Closing costs: $10,407
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
477 Westwood Rd Stanardsville, VA	2.0	2.0	1450	$2,690	$1.86	0d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $346,900 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $346,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $346,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $346,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $346,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-05-21
   listed $346,900 Active
7. 2018-06-01
   soldstatus $207,000
8. 2018-02-22
   listed $212,000
9. 2005-11-13
   listed $199,500
10. 2005-02-28
    historical
11. 2005-02-28
    historical
12. 2005-01-11
    historical
13. 2004-10-11
    listed $180,500
14. 2004-09-27
    listed $179,000
15. 2004-08-27
    listed $179,000
16. 2003-10-16
    listed $164,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,845 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$923/yr (+$77/mo · 48.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,432
• − Property taxes: −$1,922
• − Insurance: −$1,734
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,582
• − Management: −$2,582
• − Depreciation: −$10,092
• Taxable loss: −$6,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,455
• After-tax cash flow: $1,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stanardsville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #8223

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,980

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.51%
• Current HPI: 181.8265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+110.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $346,900 CAAR
• 2018-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $207,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-22 Listed $212,000 CAAR
• 2005-11-13 Listed $199,500 CAAR
• 2005-02-28 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2005-02-28 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2005-01-11 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2004-10-11 Listed $180,500 CAAR
• 2004-09-27 Listed $179,000 CAAR
• 2004-08-27 Listed $179,000 CAAR
• 2003-10-16 Listed $164,500 CAAR

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,922 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.