625 Houston St · Kingsland, TX 78639

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Manufactured public records · 114 Days on market

0.48 ac lot $116/sqft · 16% below area Est $148k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity meets flexibility with this mostly renovated manufactured home in a great location on just under half an acre. Situated on four included land lots with mature trees, numerous possibilities exist. Whether you're looking for room to expand, build additional structures, invest, or simply enjoy a larger yard, this property delivers. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, the mostly renovated home offers a comfortable layout with a spacious living room, a functional kitchen, and intelligently placed bedrooms. The convenience of nearby restaurants and grocery stores make for ideal living.

Key facts

• Great location
• Larger yard
• Mature trees

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• MATURE TREES
• LARGER YARD
• FOUR INCLUDED LAND LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,161 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 435 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 79% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.95%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,299
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -15.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
917 Austin St	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-2%)	7mo	$87,500	$83	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,383
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $10,023
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78639

• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $656/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $965

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $238	+0% $203	+5% $167	+10% $132
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $155	+0% $203	+5% $251	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $235	base $203	+0.5pp $170	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Aster St Unit 930B Dallas Kingsland, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$995	$1.11	13d	1	0.63mi
804 Redwood Dr Unit 806 Kingsland, TX	2.0	2.0	962	$1,050	$1.09	13d	1	0.98mi
2146 Cedar Valley Dr Kingsland, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$925	$0.93	20d	1	1.09mi
1731 Greenwood Ln Ln heuristic Kingsland, TX	4.0	2.0	862	$1,200	$1.39	26d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-02-24
    status Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Opportunity meets flexibility with this mostly renovated manufactured home in a great location on just under half an acre. Situated on four included land lots with mature trees, numerous possibilities exist. Whether you're looking for room to expand, build additional structures, invest, or simply enjoy a larger yard, this property delivers. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, the mostly renovated home offers a comfortable layout with a spacious living room, a functional kitchen, and intelligently placed bedrooms. The convenience of nearby restaurants and grocery stores make for ideal living.

18. 2026-02-24
    price $125,000 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Opportunity meets flexibility with this mostly renovated manufactured home in a great location on just under half an acre. Situated on four included land lots with mature trees, numerous possibilities exist. Whether you're looking for room to expand, build additional structures, invest, or simply enjoy a larger yard, this property delivers. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, the mostly renovated home offers a comfortable layout with a spacious living room, a functional kitchen, and intelligently placed bedrooms. The convenience of nearby restaurants and grocery stores make for ideal living.

19. 2026-02-24
    historical 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Opportunity meets flexibility with this mostly renovated manufactured home in a great location on just under half an acre. Situated on four included land lots with mature trees, numerous possibilities exist. Whether you're looking for room to expand, build additional structures, invest, or simply enjoy a larger yard, this property delivers. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, the mostly renovated home offers a comfortable layout with a spacious living room, a functional kitchen, and intelligently placed bedrooms. The convenience of nearby restaurants and grocery stores make for ideal living.

20. 2026-02-22
    listed $70,000 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Opportunity meets flexibility with this mostly renovated manufactured home in a great location on just under half an acre. Situated on four included land lots with mature trees, numerous possibilities exist. Whether you're looking for room to expand, build additional structures, invest, or simply enjoy a larger yard, this property delivers. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, the mostly renovated home offers a comfortable layout with a spacious living room, a functional kitchen, and intelligently placed bedrooms. The convenience of nearby restaurants and grocery stores make for ideal living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,631/yr (+$136/mo · 248.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$656
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$95
• After-tax cash flow: $2,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kingsland

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1161
• US rank: #20293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingsland, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 8,719
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 8,719
• Household income: $57,742
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 202.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.30%
• Current HPI: 219.8651
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+78.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $125,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listed $70,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+69.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $656 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.