10613 Fern Hollow Run · Ruskin, FL 34219

$369,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,045 sqft · Land · 150 Days on market

Built 2026 6,378 sqft lot $223/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! Receive up to $15,000 towards closing costs and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender + $5,000 towards upgrades - Now through Sunday, May 31st. Self-guided tour available on this quick move-in home every day from 7am-9pm. Stop by to tour on your own time. Our Newest Community is Set within Southwest Florida's natural beauty and close to many popular area attractions, just 3 miles from I-75. Oakfield Trails neighborhood will consist of single-family homes all designed to meet the needs of today’s modern family. All of our homes feature all-concrete block construction on the first and second floors and D. R. Horton’s state-of-the-art Smart Home

Key facts

• Natural playgrounds
• Pickleball courts
• Tennis courts

Tags

• SMART HOME AUTOMATION
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS
• NATURAL PLAYGROUNDS
• TREE COVERED EVENT SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Builder information available (D.R. Horton, license CBC1259187); Living area reported as 2,045 sq ft (builder source); total building area 2,755 sq ft
• Financial info: Other annual assessment amount listed; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Legacy Preserve Homeowner’s Association); Monthly HOA fee of $223 (required; association approval required); Community pool and clubhouse; Playground; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sprinkler well; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Northwest facing; Completed new construction (projected completion April 17, 2026)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (model: Lantana); New construction
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Level, paved lot; Irrigation equipment; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Stone counters; Walk-in closets; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-386 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $302,183 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-93,041
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-146,143
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,022 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,535/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$223
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $-386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,510

Max offer price $313,170

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-258	+0% $-386	+5% $-513	+10% $-641
Rent	-10% $-625	-5% $-505	+0% $-386	+5% $-266	+10% $-147
Rate	-1.0pp $-200	-0.5pp $-292	base $-386	+0.5pp $-481	+1.0pp $-579

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	12d	1	0.57mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	5d	1	0.73mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	5d	1	0.94mi
11454 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,575	$1.57	17d	1	0.97mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	5d	1	0.99mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	25d	1	1.00mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	25d	1	1.12mi
11880 Little River Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	25d	1	1.15mi
11884 Little River Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2142	$3,250	$1.52	17d	1	1.15mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	5d	1	1.16mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	17d	1	1.17mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	3d	32	1.19mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	25d	1	1.22mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	25d	1	1.41mi
11230 82nd St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,495	$1.42	17d	1	1.42mi
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,450	$1.63	17d	1	1.47mi
11567 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,999	$1.41	5d	1	1.47mi
11628 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$3,500	$1.63	23d	1	1.48mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	12d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $223 · $2,676/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-20
   price $369,000
3. 2026-05-19
   price $372,000
4. 2026-05-13
   price $369,000
5. 2026-05-06
   price $372,000
6. 2026-04-30
   price $374,000
7. 2026-04-22
   price $377,000
8. 2026-04-15
   price $379,000
9. 2026-04-09
   price $384,000
10. 2026-04-03
    price $389,000
11. 2026-03-25
    price $392,000
12. 2026-03-18
    price $394,000
13. 2026-03-12
    price $397,000
14. 2026-03-05
    price $399,000
15. 2026-02-26
    price $404,000
16. 2026-01-28
    price $407,000
17. 2026-01-26
    price $409,990
18. 2026-01-20
    price $399,000
19. 2025-12-22
    listed $409,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$5,535
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,901
• − Management: −$2,901
• − HOA: −$2,676
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$11,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,640
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $369,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $372,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $369,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $372,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $374,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $377,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $379,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $384,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $389,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $392,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $394,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $397,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $404,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $407,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $409,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Listed $409,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid