207 Salt Creek Ln · Mexico Beach, FL 32456

$294,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,460 sqft · Townhouse · 117 Days on market

Built 2026 1,873 sqft lot $202/sqft · 49% below area Est $582k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing Salt Creek, the newest townhouse development in Mexico Beach. This community is nestled on the eastern edge of Bay County. This is a 3 bedroom and 2.5-bathroom townhome. On the outside of these units, you will see quality Color-Plus Hardie Board exteriors, complemented by prairie-style doors and 30-year dimensional shingles. Convenience meets security with steel garage doors equipped with openers, weatherproof outlets, hose bibs, and Kwikset deadbolts on all exterior doors. As you enter inside, you will feel right at home with beautiful EVP flooring at your feet, leading you to the open living room and kitchen or the spacious upstairs. In the kitchen and bathrooms, you will find gorgeous quartz countertops, white cabinets with brushed nickel hardware, and stainless-steel appliances. Stay cool at the beach with energy-efficient cooling and heating systems, Low-E insulated windows with screens, and water-saving elongated commodes. For added security, every home comes equipped with a Safe Haven Surveillance system, Skybell doorbell, Honeywell thermostat, and DEAKO Smart Switches. A one-year builder's warranty and a ten-year structural warranty is included. Escape the hustle and bustle with a peaceful community atmosphere free from heavy traffic and short-term rentals. Welcome to Salt Creek - where coastal living meets modern comfort.

Key facts

• Steel garage doors
• Evp flooring
• Kwikset deadbolts

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE BEACHES
• 30-YEAR DIMENSIONAL SHINGLES
• STEEL GARAGE DOORS
• KWIKSET DEADBOLTS
• EVP FLOORING
• GORGEOUS QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.0% in Mexico Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#627 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1028 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $212,023 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $582,049
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: -49.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
357 Salt Creek Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,460 (0%)	3mo	$269,900	$185	94
341 Salt Creek Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,460 (0%)	6mo	$279,900	$192	91
345 Salt Creek Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,460 (0%)	7mo	$269,900	$185	90
337 Salt Creek Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,460 (0%)	7mo	$289,900	$199	90
333 Salt Creek Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,460 (0%)	7mo	$269,900	$185	89
361 Salt Creek Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,460 (0%)	9mo	$276,900	$190	89
118 38th St #13	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-2%)	11mo	$795,000	$556	56
118 38th St #13	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-2%)	11mo	$795,000	$556	56
3702 Hwy 98 #108	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-8%)	2mo	$599,000	$445	53
101 S 39th St Unit C	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,384 (-5%)	11mo	$515,000	$372	48
100 38th St Unit B	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (-9%)	8mo	$530,000	$398	43
102 38th St Unit C	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (-9%)	9mo	$525,000	$395	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-70,874
• Equity at exit: $43,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-91,356
• Equity at exit: $25,498

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32456

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Active inventory: 1028
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,424/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $242,374

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-159	-5% $-261	+0% $-363	+5% $-465	+10% $-567
Rent	-10% $-530	-5% $-447	+0% $-363	+5% $-279	+10% $-195
Rate	-1.0pp $-214	-0.5pp $-288	base $-363	+0.5pp $-439	+1.0pp $-517

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
231 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$2,100	$1.44	14d	1	0.06mi
264 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1533	$2,300	$1.50	14d	1	0.07mi
260 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$2,300	$1.58	14d	1	0.07mi
155 Town Village Blvd Mexico Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1121	$2,085	$1.86	14d	9	0.19mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $294,900 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,900 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $294,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $294,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $294,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $294,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,900 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,900 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,900 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,900 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $294,900 Active 95 DOM
19. 2026-04-01
    listed $294,900 Active 1364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1364 chars)

    Introducing Salt Creek, the newest townhouse development in Mexico Beach. This community is nestled on the eastern edge of Bay County. This is a 3 bedroom and 2.5-bathroom townhome. On the outside of these units, you will see quality Color-Plus Hardie Board exteriors, complemented by prairie-style doors and 30-year dimensional shingles. Convenience meets security with steel garage doors equipped with openers, weatherproof outlets, hose bibs, and Kwikset deadbolts on all exterior doors. As you enter inside, you will feel right at home with beautiful EVP flooring at your feet, leading you to the open living room and kitchen or the spacious upstairs. In the kitchen and bathrooms, you will find gorgeous quartz countertops, white cabinets with brushed nickel hardware, and stainless-steel appliances. Stay cool at the beach with energy-efficient cooling and heating systems, Low-E insulated windows with screens, and water-saving elongated commodes. For added security, every home comes equipped with a Safe Haven Surveillance system, Skybell doorbell, Honeywell thermostat, and DEAKO Smart Switches. A one-year builder's warranty and a ten-year structural warranty is included. Escape the hustle and bustle with a peaceful community atmosphere free from heavy traffic and short-term rentals. Welcome to Salt Creek - where coastal living meets modern comfort.

20. 2026-02-24
    listed $294,900 Active 2129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2129 chars)

    Welcome to the Salt Creek Townhomes located in the highly visited Mexico Beach, Florida. Salt Creek is located right on the edge of Bay County, you will find beautiful beaches of the Gulf of Mexico within walking distance, and local restaurants and shopping close by. These homes offer easy access to Tyndall Air Force Base (just a 15-minute drive), Panama City Beach (30 minutes away), and downtown Port St. Joe (only 20 minutes away). At Salt Creek, we have the Sabal Townhome which features 2 floor plans, an interior and exterior unit. These thoughtfully designed townhomes offer either 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms or 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The single townhome has a 1-car garage, and the exterior unit has a 2-car garage. On the outside of these units, you will see quality Color-Plus Hardie Board exteriors, complemented by prairie-style doors and 30-year dimensional shingles. Convenience meets security with steel garage doors equipped with openers, weatherproof outlets, hose bibs, and Kwikset deadbolts on all exterior doors. As you enter inside, you will feel right at home with beautiful EVP flooring at your feet, leading you to the open living room and kitchen or the spacious upstairs. In the kitchen and bathroom, you will find gorgeous quartz countertops, white cabinets with brushed nickel hardware, and stainless-steel appliances in the kitchen. Stay cool at the beach with energy-efficient cooling and heating systems, Low-E insulated windows with screens, and water-saving elongated commodes. For added security, every home comes equipped with a Safe Haven Surveillance system, Skybell doorbell, Honeywell thermostat, and DEAKO Smart Switches. Rest assured with a one-year builder's warranty from DR Horton and a ten-year structural warranty through RWC. Our Salt Creek community features underground utilities making it less susceptible to damage from severe weather leading to fewer outages and more reliable service. Escape the hustle and bustle with a peaceful community atmosphere free from heavy traffic and short-term rentals. Welcome to Salt Creek - where coastal living meets modern comfort.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$4,424
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$9,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,310
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mexico Beach

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #12224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexico Beach, FL
• County: Gulf County · 7,510 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,510
• Household income: $64,681
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 194.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.36%
• Current HPI: 396.0936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $294,900 RAFGC
• 2026-02-24 Listed $294,900 CPARMLS