236 Fairway Dr Unit F · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$143,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition Est $151k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 1983 manufactured home located at the end of a private cul-de-sac in the desirable Santiago Island Village Family Park. Offering 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this move-in-ready home features a new roof, indoor laundry, and a new concrete driveway and an unobstructed view of the golf course/open space which allows added privacy and a peaceful setting. Situated on a small, private street, this home is priced below market value and offers access to outstanding community amenities, including a swimming pool. For boating and outdoor enthusiasts, the property is located less than one mile from a public launch ramp, providing direct access to California's renow

Key facts

• Remodeled
• No rear neighbors
• Indoor laundry

Tags

• REMODELED
• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• NEW ROOF
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• NEW CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park: Santiago Island Village; Community pool; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; number and size limits apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide model (MANATEE); Faces north
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Community pool
• Exterior features: Side yard; Level lot; Paved access; Cul-de-sac; Dead-end street; Property contains 2 mobile homes on one lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Stone counters; Dishwasher; Gas range; Built-in microwave; Built-in oven; Self-cleaning oven; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level/main entry)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Updated kitchen; Window coverings; No additional rooms
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; 220V outlet in laundry; Laundry cabinets; Electric hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $143k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $143k).
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 2.7% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($989 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.37%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,248
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3505 Gateway Rd Unit 13E	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+3%)	16mo	$90,000	$79	80
3505 Gateway Dr Unit E5	0.04mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (-4%)	6mo	$145,000	$137	77
3505 Gateway Rd Unit 12E	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	9mo	$146,500	$122	76
3505 Gateway Rd Unit 16E	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,032 (-6%)	18mo	$145,000	$141	73
3505 Gateway Rd Unit 26E	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+13%)	24mo	$180,000	$144	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $145,327
• Equity at exit: $128,826

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.39×
• Total profit: $375,783
• Equity at exit: $277,818

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$179 /mo · $2,145/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $1,054

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $143,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,153	-5% $1,104	+0% $1,054	+5% $1,005	+10% $955
Rent	-10% $807	-5% $931	+0% $1,054	+5% $1,178	+10% $1,301
Rate	-1.0pp $1,126	-0.5pp $1,090	base $1,054	+0.5pp $1,017	+1.0pp $979

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $143,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $143,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $143,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $143,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $155,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$2,145
• − Insurance: −$5,834
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,000
• − Management: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable income: $11,353
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,725
• After-tax cash flow: $9,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully remodeled 1983 manufactured home is move-in ready with new updates throughout, including a new roof, hardwood floors, and fresh paint. The property is located in a desirable neighborhood with access to community amenities and direct access to the Delta. The home is priced below market value and offers a peaceful setting with no rear neighbors.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both exterior paint — fresh paint improves curb appeal and value
• Both landscaping and fencing — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both exterior paint — fresh paint improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping and fencing — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $155,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR