5295 County Route 14 · Norfolk, NY 13621

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1900 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

5295 County Route 14 is an affordable 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the quiet hamlet of Chase Mills, NY. Offering a practical and efficient layout, this partially renovated home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking a year-round residence close to some of the area's best outdoor recreation. Recent updates have already been completed, including new windows, updated flooring, a new electrical entrance, and an energy-efficient mini-split system for heating and cooling. These improvements provide a solid foundation while still allowing the next owner the opportunity to add their own finishing touches and personal style. The home also features a lar

Key facts

• Updated flooring
• Partially renovated
• New windows

Tags

• PARTIALLY RENOVATED
• NEW WINDOWS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEW ELECTRICAL ENTRANCE
• LARGE MUDROOM LAUNDRY AREA
• ATTACHED ONE STALL GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story residential home; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Metal roof; Built on a crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Workshop on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-555/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#737 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Madrid-Waddington Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #332 of 590 in NY (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madrid-Waddington Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 327 students, 43% FRL); Madrid-Waddington Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #887 of 1,100 statewide, top 82%, 328 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,329 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $25,291
• Equity at exit: $76,676

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $81,617
• Equity at exit: $127,999

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13621

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,449/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,192

Max offer price $136,830

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-5	+0% $-46	+5% $-87	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-91	+0% $-46	+5% $-1	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-9	base $-46	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,449 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$501/yr (+$42/mo · 34.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,449
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,088
• − Management: −$1,088
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$742
• After-tax cash flow: $187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madrid-Waddington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618090
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $51,008
• Composite: 45.35/100
• National rank: #2635
• State rank: #332 of 590 in NY

Livability — Norfolk

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #737
• US rank: #14031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 683

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.37%
• Current HPI: 296.5202
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $145,000 SLCMLS

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,449 · +26.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.