4016 Neapolis Ln · Sacramento, CA 95834

$171,600

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,726 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2009 1,794 sqft lot $37/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming home nestled in the heart of Sacramento's sought-after Natomas community! Conveniently located near the intersection of Truxel Rd and Del Paso Rd, this property offers easy access to shopping, dining, entertainment, and Highway 5. Enjoy the best of Sacramento living with Golden 1 Center just minutes away. Don't miss this fantastic opportunity!

Key facts

• 1,794 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2009

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $172k).
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bannon Creek (457 students, 80% FRL); Natomas High (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #788 of 1,170 statewide, top 69%, 1,229 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 45% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Natomas Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 145 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.39%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $503,992
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3733 Po River Way	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,774 (+3%)	1mo	$560,000	$316	81
3745 Po River Way	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,774 (+3%)	3mo	$557,000	$314	78
4207 Adriatic Sea Way	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,763 (+2%)	1mo	$509,000	$289	76
4127 Hydo Lake Way	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,954 (+13%)	3mo	$585,000	$299	64
3700 Hovnanian Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,763 (+2%)	0mo	$515,000	$292	62
4219 Adriatic Sea Way	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,892 (+10%)	3mo	$510,000	$270	61
130 Groth Cir	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,659 (-4%)	1mo	$545,000	$329	60
20 Baffin Bay Ct	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,763 (+2%)	4mo	$515,000	$292	57
3235 Marrissey Ln	0.75mi	4/2.5	1,823 (+6%)	1mo	$439,900	$241	53
4418 Natomas Central Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,868 (+8%)	3mo	$505,000	$270	53
3725 Gulf Of Haifa Ave	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,868 (+8%)	0mo	$489,000	$262	52
207 Alboran Sea Cir	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,892 (+10%)	1mo	$515,000	$272	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,625
• Equity at exit: $25,586

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $25,810
• Equity at exit: $14,837

Cash invested: $48,048 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95834

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,960 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$900
• Tax from tax record: −$633 /mo · $7,600/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,237

Max offer price $171,600

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,900
• Closing costs: $5,148
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4045 Neapolis Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1811	$2,800	$1.55	2d	1	0.06mi
4032 Vittoria Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,795	$1.75	23d	1	0.07mi
101 Lily Bay Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1950	$2,900	$1.49	20d	1	0.10mi
4138 Hydo Lake Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1954	$3,000	$1.54	17d	1	0.13mi
4118 Adriatic Sea Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1593	$2,995	$1.88	17d	1	0.17mi
4237 Malta Island St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1954	$2,895	$1.48	43d	1	0.29mi
3301 Arena Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	952	$2,725	$2.86	1d	1	0.47mi
17 Hertford Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1511	$2,450	$1.62	23d	1	0.73mi
301 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,750	$1.78	14d	1	0.90mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	43d	1	0.95mi
2957 Nimes Ln Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	1920	$2,795	$1.46	43d	1	0.96mi
3547 Jumilla Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1323	$2,650	$2.00	12d	1	0.98mi
17 Advantage Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,595	$1.86	43d	1	0.98mi
3635 Poppy Hill Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1441	$2,895	$2.01	23d	1	1.00mi
4470 Saone Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1846	$2,950	$1.60	1d	1	1.01mi
3610 Duckhorn Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$3,140	$3.39	1d	29	1.14mi
4190 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$3,300	$3.51	1d	20	1.16mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	43d	1	1.19mi
2858 Screech Owl Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2212	$3,300	$1.49	43d	1	1.25mi
3900 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,600	$1.98	43d	1	1.31mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	43d	1	1.37mi
3828 Aircraft Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,395	$1.31	23d	1	1.42mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	7d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $171,600 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-04-18
   historical
3. 2026-04-03
   listed $171,600
4. 2021-11-24
   soldstatus $520,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,600 · $633/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,600 · $633/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,612
• − Property taxes: −$7,600
• − Insurance: −$2,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,841
• − Management: −$2,841
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$4,992
• Taxable income: $4,825
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,158
• After-tax cash flow: $5,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,245
• Household income: $101,260
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 29% Hispanic / Latino 28% White 19% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.12%
• Current HPI: 295.8305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-67.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $171,600 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $520,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,600 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.