22830 SW 118th Pl · Dunnellon, FL 34431

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1989 0.26 ac lot $140/sqft · 84% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your slice of Florida paradise! This 1989 mobile home boasts 3 bedrooms and 2 baths across 1,100+ sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Nestled on a spacious . 26-acre lot in the sought-after River Retreats community, you’ll enjoy a serene lifestyle surrounded by nature. Step onto the back deck for peaceful mornings, and take advantage of the indoor laundry room, carport, and storage shed for added convenience. Plus, River Retreats offers a private boat launch to the Withlacoochee River, which flows into the world-renowned Rainbow River perfect for boating, fishing, and outdoor adventures. Under 30 minutes to the Gulf, under 40 minutes to Ocala and under 10 minutes to Tidewater Trail in Goethe State Forest! This is a cash-only opportunity—ideal for investors or those seeking a peaceful weekend retreat or snow birds. Don’t miss out, your riverfront dream awaits!

Key facts

• Carport
• Private boat launch
• Storage shed

Tags

• BACK DECK
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• PRIVATE BOAT LAUNCH
• RIVER RETREATS COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#443 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 556 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $155k implies a 349% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.80%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,278
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 83.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,558
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $26,783
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34431

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,562/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $442	-5% $398	+0% $354	+5% $311	+10% $267
Rent	-10% $218	-5% $286	+0% $354	+5% $422	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $394	base $354	+0.5pp $314	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    price $155,000 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    Welcome to your slice of Florida paradise! This 1989 mobile home boasts 3 bedrooms and 2 baths across 1,100+ sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Nestled on a spacious . 26-acre lot in the sought-after River Retreats community, you’ll enjoy a serene lifestyle surrounded by nature. Step onto the back deck for peaceful mornings, and take advantage of the indoor laundry room, carport, and storage shed for added convenience. Plus, River Retreats offers a private boat launch to the Withlacoochee River, which flows into the world-renowned Rainbow River perfect for boating, fishing, and outdoor adventures. Under 30 minutes to the Gulf, under 40 minutes to Ocala and under 10 minutes to Tidewater Trail in Goethe State Forest! This is a cash-only opportunity—ideal for investors or those seeking a peaceful weekend retreat or snow birds. Don’t miss out, your riverfront dream awaits!

17. 2026-03-07
    listed $175,000 Active 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    Welcome to your slice of Florida paradise! This 1989 mobile home boasts 3 bedrooms and 2 baths across 1,100+ sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Nestled on a spacious . 26-acre lot in the sought-after River Retreats community, you’ll enjoy a serene lifestyle surrounded by nature. Step onto the back deck for peaceful mornings, and take advantage of the indoor laundry room, carport, and storage shed for added convenience. Plus, River Retreats offers a private boat launch to the Withlacoochee River, which flows into the world-renowned Rainbow River perfect for boating, fishing, and outdoor adventures. Under 30 minutes to the Gulf, under 40 minutes to Ocala and under 10 minutes to Tidewater Trail in Goethe State Forest! This is a cash-only opportunity—ideal for investors or those seeking a peaceful weekend retreat or snow birds. Don’t miss out, your riverfront dream awaits!

18. 2017-01-11
    soldstatus $34,500 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Lots of potential! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home would be great for a starter home or retiree either full time or seasonal. Includes refridgerator, stove, washer and dryer. Carport parking with a storage closet, plus a large shed with window a/c unit. Home has a deck off the back. Whether you love salt or fresh water fishing. This is the place for you. Enjoy living in an area that offers peace and quiet, with easy access to water including access to private neighborhood boat ramp with access to Lake Rousseau & the Withlacoochee River for the best bass fishing in the area.

19. 2016-07-29
    listed $39,995 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Lots of potential! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home would be great for a starter home or retiree either full time or seasonal. Includes refridgerator, stove, washer and dryer. Carport parking with a storage closet, plus a large shed with window a/c unit. Home has a deck off the back. Whether you love salt or fresh water fishing. This is the place for you. Enjoy living in an area that offers peace and quiet, with easy access to water including access to private neighborhood boat ramp with access to Lake Rousseau & the Withlacoochee River for the best bass fishing in the area.

20. 2009-12-08
    soldstatus $69,100
21. 2007-07-19
    soldstatus $82,000
22. 2007-07-19
    soldstatus $82,000
23. 2007-04-07
    listed $82,000
24. 2007-04-03
    historical
25. 2006-10-03
    listed $82,500
26. 2006-04-21
    soldstatus $77,000
27. 2006-04-19
    soldstatus $77,000
28. 2006-02-03
    listed $78,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,562
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,850
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$444
• After-tax cash flow: $3,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dunnellon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #7922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 20,859
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,785
• Household income: $56,534
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 72.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.42%
• Current HPI: 343.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+96.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-11 Sold (MLS) $34,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-29 Listed $39,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $69,100 Public Records
• 2007-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-19 Sold (MLS) $82,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-07 Listed $82,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-03 Listed $82,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-19 Sold (MLS) $77,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-03 Listed $78,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+16.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,562 · +26.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.