0 Hot Springs Canyon Rd #26 · Rancho Mission Viejo, CA 92675

$420,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 235 Days on market

Built 1926 Fair condition 401 ac lot $382/sqft · 35% above area Est $311k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Historic Creekside Cabin in Gated Forest Service Retreat – Hot Springs Canyon This 1926 creekside cabin is part of a rare gated Forest Service retreat in the Santa Ana Mountains, just 12 miles from San Juan Capistrano along the scenic Ortega Highway. One of only 14,000 remaining in the U. S. , it’s part of America’s first Recreation Residence Program—established by Congress and signed into law by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1915 to provide families with recreational experiences in our National Forests. The cabin and its improvements are privately owned, while the land is permitted through the U. S. Forest Service. Set within the Trabuco District of the Cleveland National Forest and bordered by picturesque Hot Springs Creek, this unique retreat offers a tranquil, back-to-nature experience only minutes from downtown San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente, and Dana Point. Inside the approximately 1,100 sq. ft. cabin, vintage charm meets thoughtful updates. Features include an Oregon wood-burning stove, thermostat-controlled gas heat, in-wall air conditioning, skylights, and clerestory windows that fill the living spaces with natural light. The primary bedroom’s 16-foot bay window overlooks the creek in both directions, while a stained-glass window casts a warm glow across the smaller bathroom each morning. Three additional rooms provide flexible use as guest rooms, office, or storage. Modern comforts include the availability of satellite internet, a full kitchen, washer and dryer, and a propane-powered backup generator—all while preserving the authentic 1920s cabin style. The current Forest Service permit is valid through 2028, with renewal approved through 2048. Surrounded by pristine wilderness, this small community of just fourteen cabins enjoys privacy, shared stewardship, and an enduring connection to nature. No additional cabins will ever be built here—ensuring peace, quiet, and unobstructed forest views for generations to come. Watch red-tailed hawks soar by day and listen to the owls hoot at night. Hike nearby trails, explore the creek, and experience a living piece of California’s natural and cultural history. Cash only sale. No financing currently available for Forest Service cabins. Listing has supplements. Please read.

Key facts

• Seasonal creek
• Wood-burning stove
• Forest hideaway

Tags

• RUSTIC CREEKSIDE CABIN
• FOREST HIDEAWAY
• CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST
• SEASONAL CREEK
• WOOD-BURNING STOVE
• CLERESTORY WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $420k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $420k).
• Recommended offer: $370k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.8% in Rancho Mission Viejo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $369,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.33%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,334
• List price: $420,000
• Delta: 34.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Hot Springs Cyn #1	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,100 (0%)	8mo	$254,100	$231	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,993
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $171,187
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92675

• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$525 /mo · $6,300/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$963
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,674

Max offer price $420,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 226 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $420,000 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $420,000 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,000 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 217 DOM
15. 2025-10-27
    status Active 2316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2316 chars)

    Historic Creekside Cabin in Gated Forest Service Retreat – Hot Springs Canyon This 1926 creekside cabin is part of a rare gated Forest Service retreat in the Santa Ana Mountains, just 12 miles from San Juan Capistrano along the scenic Ortega Highway. One of only 14,000 remaining in the U. S. , it’s part of America’s first Recreation Residence Program—established by Congress and signed into law by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1915 to provide families with recreational experiences in our National Forests. The cabin and its improvements are privately owned, while the land is permitted through the U. S. Forest Service. Set within the Trabuco District of the Cleveland National Forest and bordered by picturesque Hot Springs Creek, this unique retreat offers a tranquil, back-to-nature experience only minutes from downtown San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente, and Dana Point. Inside the approximately 1,100 sq. ft. cabin, vintage charm meets thoughtful updates. Features include an Oregon wood-burning stove, thermostat-controlled gas heat, in-wall air conditioning, skylights, and clerestory windows that fill the living spaces with natural light. The primary bedroom’s 16-foot bay window overlooks the creek in both directions, while a stained-glass window casts a warm glow across the smaller bathroom each morning. Three additional rooms provide flexible use as guest rooms, office, or storage. Modern comforts include the availability of satellite internet, a full kitchen, washer and dryer, and a propane-powered backup generator—all while preserving the authentic 1920s cabin style. The current Forest Service permit is valid through 2028, with renewal approved through 2048. Surrounded by pristine wilderness, this small community of just fourteen cabins enjoys privacy, shared stewardship, and an enduring connection to nature. No additional cabins will ever be built here—ensuring peace, quiet, and unobstructed forest views for generations to come. Watch red-tailed hawks soar by day and listen to the owls hoot at night. Hike nearby trails, explore the creek, and experience a living piece of California’s natural and cultural history. Cash only sale. No financing currently available for Forest Service cabins. Listing has supplements. Please read.

16. 2025-10-07
    historical 2316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2316 chars)

    Historic Creekside Cabin in Gated Forest Service Retreat – Hot Springs Canyon This 1926 creekside cabin is part of a rare gated Forest Service retreat in the Santa Ana Mountains, just 12 miles from San Juan Capistrano along the scenic Ortega Highway. One of only 14,000 remaining in the U. S. , it’s part of America’s first Recreation Residence Program—established by Congress and signed into law by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1915 to provide families with recreational experiences in our National Forests. The cabin and its improvements are privately owned, while the land is permitted through the U. S. Forest Service. Set within the Trabuco District of the Cleveland National Forest and bordered by picturesque Hot Springs Creek, this unique retreat offers a tranquil, back-to-nature experience only minutes from downtown San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente, and Dana Point. Inside the approximately 1,100 sq. ft. cabin, vintage charm meets thoughtful updates. Features include an Oregon wood-burning stove, thermostat-controlled gas heat, in-wall air conditioning, skylights, and clerestory windows that fill the living spaces with natural light. The primary bedroom’s 16-foot bay window overlooks the creek in both directions, while a stained-glass window casts a warm glow across the smaller bathroom each morning. Three additional rooms provide flexible use as guest rooms, office, or storage. Modern comforts include the availability of satellite internet, a full kitchen, washer and dryer, and a propane-powered backup generator—all while preserving the authentic 1920s cabin style. The current Forest Service permit is valid through 2028, with renewal approved through 2048. Surrounded by pristine wilderness, this small community of just fourteen cabins enjoys privacy, shared stewardship, and an enduring connection to nature. No additional cabins will ever be built here—ensuring peace, quiet, and unobstructed forest views for generations to come. Watch red-tailed hawks soar by day and listen to the owls hoot at night. Hike nearby trails, explore the creek, and experience a living piece of California’s natural and cultural history. Cash only sale. No financing currently available for Forest Service cabins. Listing has supplements. Please read.

17. 2025-10-06
    listed $420,000 Active 2316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2316 chars)

    Historic Creekside Cabin in Gated Forest Service Retreat – Hot Springs Canyon This 1926 creekside cabin is part of a rare gated Forest Service retreat in the Santa Ana Mountains, just 12 miles from San Juan Capistrano along the scenic Ortega Highway. One of only 14,000 remaining in the U. S. , it’s part of America’s first Recreation Residence Program—established by Congress and signed into law by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1915 to provide families with recreational experiences in our National Forests. The cabin and its improvements are privately owned, while the land is permitted through the U. S. Forest Service. Set within the Trabuco District of the Cleveland National Forest and bordered by picturesque Hot Springs Creek, this unique retreat offers a tranquil, back-to-nature experience only minutes from downtown San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente, and Dana Point. Inside the approximately 1,100 sq. ft. cabin, vintage charm meets thoughtful updates. Features include an Oregon wood-burning stove, thermostat-controlled gas heat, in-wall air conditioning, skylights, and clerestory windows that fill the living spaces with natural light. The primary bedroom’s 16-foot bay window overlooks the creek in both directions, while a stained-glass window casts a warm glow across the smaller bathroom each morning. Three additional rooms provide flexible use as guest rooms, office, or storage. Modern comforts include the availability of satellite internet, a full kitchen, washer and dryer, and a propane-powered backup generator—all while preserving the authentic 1920s cabin style. The current Forest Service permit is valid through 2028, with renewal approved through 2048. Surrounded by pristine wilderness, this small community of just fourteen cabins enjoys privacy, shared stewardship, and an enduring connection to nature. No additional cabins will ever be built here—ensuring peace, quiet, and unobstructed forest views for generations to come. Watch red-tailed hawks soar by day and listen to the owls hoot at night. Hike nearby trails, explore the creek, and experience a living piece of California’s natural and cultural history. Cash only sale. No financing currently available for Forest Service cabins. Listing has supplements. Please read.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone D · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 10 d/yr ≥91°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$6,300
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,400
• − Management: −$4,400
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable income: $2,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$494
• After-tax cash flow: $8,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This historic cabin requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Repairs to plumbing, cabinetry, and flooring are necessary to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed plumbing — Visible leaks and damage
• Major Worn cabinetry — Visible wear and tear
• Major Exposed electrical wiring — Visible damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace flooring — Improves comfort and value
• Both Replace cabinetry — Enhances aesthetics and value
• Both Replace plumbing — Fixes major issues and improves value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed plumbing · Visible leaks and damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Worn cabinetry · Visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed electrical wiring · Visible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Replace cabinetry — Enhances aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Replace plumbing — Fixes major issues and improves value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddleback Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633860
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $85,577
• Composite: 56.05/100
• National rank: #1185
• State rank: #67 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Mission Viejo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 35,019
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,095
• Household income: $129,457
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 648.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1003.11%
• Current HPI: 410.383
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.20%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $420,000 CRMLS