15951 N 173rd Ave · Surprise, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 112°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +12.7/15.0
- Cash flow +7.9/30.0
- Appreciation +5.1/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Schools +3.3/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Rent growth +2.4/5.0
- DSCR +1.9/10.0
- 1% rule +1.6/10.0
$367,500
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a desirable Surprise neighborhood. Featuring vinyl flooring throughout, this home offers a clean, modern look with easy maintenance—perfect for busy households. The open living spaces provide comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room for kids, pets, or future outdoor upgrades like a patio or play area. Conveniently located near parks, schools, shopping, and dining, this home combines comfort, functionality, and location.
Key facts
- Open living spaces
- Near schools
- Vinyl flooring
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $368k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (19.1% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (34.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $241k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
- Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Canyon Ridge School (math 53% / reading 60%, grade C+, #191 of 1,109 statewide, top 18%, 944 students, 33% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
- Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($323k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.66% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.00%
- Cash-on-cash
- -4.63%
- DSCR
- 0.79
- GRM
- 12.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $415,090
- List price
- $367,500
- Delta
- -11.46%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17145 W Ironwood St | 0.19mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,670 (-2%) | 1mo | $389,000 | $233 | 82 |
| 15518 N 170th Ln | 0.38mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,631 (-4%) | 1mo | $380,000 | $233 | 70 |
| 17746 W Desert Ln | 0.56mi | 4/2.0 | 1,767 (+4%) | 3mo | $417,500 | $236 | 64 |
| 15219 N 174th Dr | 0.51mi | 4/2.0 | 1,805 (+6%) | 3mo | $379,000 | $210 | 64 |
| 16873 W Statler St | 0.57mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,603 (-6%) | 3mo | $367,000 | $229 | 56 |
| 17709 W Statler Dr | 0.55mi | 4/3.0 | 1,818 (+7%) | 3mo | $370,000 | $204 | 56 |
| 16149 N 171st Dr | 0.25mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 1,948 (+15%) | 3mo | $360,000 | $185 | 54 |
| 17160 W Young St | 0.42mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,485 (-13%) | 3mo | $372,000 | $251 | 52 |
| 17278 W Bridger St | 0.43mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,945 (+14%) | 1mo | $440,000 | $226 | 50 |
| 17085 W Young St | 0.48mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,454 (-14%) | 1mo | $340,000 | $234 | 48 |
| 15039 N 172nd Ln | 0.60mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,502 (-12%) | 0mo | $388,000 | $258 | 48 |
| 17752 W Tasha Dr | 0.63mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,510 (-11%) | 2mo | $395,000 | $262 | 46 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -7.9%
- Equity multiple
- 0.63×
- Total profit
- $-38,266
- Equity at exit
- $111,964
- IRR
- -3.7%
- Equity multiple
- 0.61×
- Total profit
- $-39,784
- Equity at exit
- $138,854
Cash invested: $102,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 85388
- Home prices YoY
- 0.1%
- Rents YoY
- -0.6%
- Active inventory
- 389
- Price-to-rent
- 12.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,414 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,927
- Tax from tax record
- −$129 /mo · $1,542/yr
- Insurance
- −$153
- HOA
- −$95
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$507
- Net cashflow
- $-397
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-189 | -5% $-293 | +0% $-397 | +5% $-501 | +10% $-605 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-587 | -5% $-492 | +0% $-397 | +5% $-301 | +10% $-206 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-212 | -0.5pp $-303 | base $-397 | +0.5pp $-492 | +1.0pp $-589 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $91,875
- Closing costs
- $11,025
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17272 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2004 | $2,085 | $1.04 | 45d | 1 | 0.06mi |
| 15927 N 171st Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1670 | $3,200 | $1.92 | 45d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 16166 N 170th Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1366 | $1,775 | $1.30 | 26d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 17190 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1506 | $1,699 | $1.13 | 25d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 15512 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2147 | $3,000 | $1.40 | 45d | 1 | 0.37mi |
| 17009 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1419 | $1,862 | $1.31 | 45d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 17610 W Ironwood St Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2149 | $2,150 | $1.00 | 6d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 17440 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2159 | $2,300 | $1.07 | 4d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 17714 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1407 | $1,485 | $1.06 | 20d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 17210 W Elm St Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1746 | $2,900 | $1.66 | 45d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 17722 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1756 | $2,185 | $1.24 | 3d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 17259 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2190 | $2,150 | $0.98 | 7d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 17218 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1502 | $1,800 | $1.20 | 13d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 17794 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1407 | $1,800 | $1.28 | 45d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 15164 N 173rd Ln Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2048 | $2,495 | $1.22 | 25d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 14945 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1699 | $2,099 | $1.24 | 7d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 17395 W Langer Ln Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1902 | $1,995 | $1.05 | 26d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 16829 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1534 | $1,850 | $1.21 | 26d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 17867 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1767 | $3,500 | $1.98 | 45d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 16663 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2192 | $2,195 | $1.00 | 0d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 17818 W Acapulco Ln Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1930 | $2,045 | $1.06 | 45d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 17862 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1766 | $2,600 | $1.47 | 20d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 17785 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1024 | $2,068 | $2.02 | 0d | 41 | 0.85mi |
| 17057 W Manchester Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1681 | $1,695 | $1.01 | 12d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 14916 N 177th Ave Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1298 | $1,849 | $1.42 | 6d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 17724 W Woodrow Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1298 | $1,825 | $1.41 | 0d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 17912 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2151 | $2,155 | $1.00 | 19d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1603 | $1,749 | $1.09 | 0d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1603 | $1,749 | $1.09 | 20d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 17618 W Mandalay Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1578 | $1,795 | $1.14 | 45d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 17923 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1610 | $1,900 | $1.18 | 45d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 17730 W Banff Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1839 | $2,495 | $1.36 | 26d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 17475 W Spring Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1885 | $3,288 | $1.74 | 45d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 17746 W Banff Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1495 | $1,785 | $1.19 | 45d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 16559 W Post Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1603 | $1,789 | $1.12 | 23d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 17716 W Mandalay Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1566 | $1,795 | $1.15 | 0d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 17938 W Port Royale Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1775 | $2,050 | $1.15 | 0d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 16523 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1621 | $2,175 | $1.34 | 3d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 18188 W Paradise Ln Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1941 | $2,200 | $1.13 | 45d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 18184 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1682 | $1,895 | $1.13 | 26d | 1 | 1.16mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $95 · $1,140/yr
Listing history 36 events
-
2026-06-21statusdays on market $367,500 Pending 163 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $367,500 Active 161 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $367,500 Active 160 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $367,500 Active 159 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $367,500 Active 158 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $367,500 Active 156 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $367,500 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $367,500 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $367,500 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $367,500 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $367,500 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $367,500 Active 145 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $367,500 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $367,500 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-04-27price $372,500 569-char remark
Show marketing remark (569 chars)
Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a desirable Surprise neighborhood. Featuring vinyl flooring throughout, this home offers a clean, modern look with easy maintenance—perfect for busy households. The open living spaces provide comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room for kids, pets, or future outdoor upgrades like a patio or play area. Conveniently located near parks, schools, shopping, and dining, this home combines comfort, functionality, and location.
-
2026-04-24soldstatus $1,220,390
-
2026-03-20price $375,000 569-char remark
Show marketing remark (569 chars)
Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a desirable Surprise neighborhood. Featuring vinyl flooring throughout, this home offers a clean, modern look with easy maintenance—perfect for busy households. The open living spaces provide comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room for kids, pets, or future outdoor upgrades like a patio or play area. Conveniently located near parks, schools, shopping, and dining, this home combines comfort, functionality, and location.
-
2026-02-27price $382,500 569-char remark
Show marketing remark (569 chars)
Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a desirable Surprise neighborhood. Featuring vinyl flooring throughout, this home offers a clean, modern look with easy maintenance—perfect for busy households. The open living spaces provide comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room for kids, pets, or future outdoor upgrades like a patio or play area. Conveniently located near parks, schools, shopping, and dining, this home combines comfort, functionality, and location.
-
2026-01-23price $390,000 569-char remark
Show marketing remark (569 chars)
Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a desirable Surprise neighborhood. Featuring vinyl flooring throughout, this home offers a clean, modern look with easy maintenance—perfect for busy households. The open living spaces provide comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room for kids, pets, or future outdoor upgrades like a patio or play area. Conveniently located near parks, schools, shopping, and dining, this home combines comfort, functionality, and location.
-
2026-01-08$395,000 Active 569-char remark
Show marketing remark (569 chars)
Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a desirable Surprise neighborhood. Featuring vinyl flooring throughout, this home offers a clean, modern look with easy maintenance—perfect for busy households. The open living spaces provide comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room for kids, pets, or future outdoor upgrades like a patio or play area. Conveniently located near parks, schools, shopping, and dining, this home combines comfort, functionality, and location.
-
2025-10-24historical $2,005
-
2025-10-04price $2,005
-
2025-09-22$2,105
-
2025-09-21historical $2,105
-
2025-09-17$2,105
-
2022-08-05price $2,100
-
2022-03-02soldstatus $1,600,500
-
2021-07-08soldstatus $320,000
-
2021-05-28soldstatus $260,000
-
2013-02-19soldstatus $135,000
-
2009-03-25soldstatus $114,900 360-char remark
Show marketing remark (360 chars)
BANK OWNED, QUICK ANSWERS, BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED AND UPGRADED HOME TILE IN ALL THE RIGHT PLACES ALL APPLIANCES IN KITCHEN, NO REAPIRS NEEDED THIS IS MOVE IN READY. GREAT INVESTMENT OR FIRST TIME HOME. CEILING FANS THROUGHT OUT. GREAT LOCATION. DON'T WAIT CAUSE YOUR COMPETITION IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS GREAT HOME, BUYER TO VERIFY ALL FACTS PERTINENT TO BUYER.
-
2009-02-19historical 360-char remark
Show marketing remark (360 chars)
BANK OWNED, QUICK ANSWERS, BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED AND UPGRADED HOME TILE IN ALL THE RIGHT PLACES ALL APPLIANCES IN KITCHEN, NO REAPIRS NEEDED THIS IS MOVE IN READY. GREAT INVESTMENT OR FIRST TIME HOME. CEILING FANS THROUGHT OUT. GREAT LOCATION. DON'T WAIT CAUSE YOUR COMPETITION IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS GREAT HOME, BUYER TO VERIFY ALL FACTS PERTINENT TO BUYER.
-
2009-01-15$114,900 360-char remark
Show marketing remark (360 chars)
BANK OWNED, QUICK ANSWERS, BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED AND UPGRADED HOME TILE IN ALL THE RIGHT PLACES ALL APPLIANCES IN KITCHEN, NO REAPIRS NEEDED THIS IS MOVE IN READY. GREAT INVESTMENT OR FIRST TIME HOME. CEILING FANS THROUGHT OUT. GREAT LOCATION. DON'T WAIT CAUSE YOUR COMPETITION IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS GREAT HOME, BUYER TO VERIFY ALL FACTS PERTINENT TO BUYER.
-
2008-02-24historical
-
2007-11-14$170,000
-
2005-12-29soldstatus $277,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,542 · $129/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,426 · $202/mo
- Expected delta
- +$883/yr (+$74/mo · 57.3%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,968
- − Mortgage interest
- −$20,586
- − Property taxes
- −$1,542
- − Insurance
- −$1,838
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,317
- − Management
- −$2,317
- − HOA
- −$1,140
- − Depreciation
- −$10,691
- Taxable loss
- −$11,463
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,751
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,010/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Dysart Unified District (4243)
- NCES district ID
- 0402690
- Math proficiency
- 34% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 40% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,033
- Composite
- 32.76/100
- National rank
- #5634
- State rank
- #73 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Surprise
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #19
- US rank
- #4616
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Surprise, AZ
- County
- Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
- City population
- 160,031
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 35,369
- Household income
- $112,164
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 224.0
Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 4,979,203 people
- By 2030
- 5,378,229 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 6,156,598 · +23.6%
- By 2050
- 6,872,376 · +38.0%
- By 2075
- 8,401,270 · +68.7%
- By 2100
- 9,247,439 · +85.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 16%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 0.28%
- Current HPI
- 272.9859
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -0.57%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
||
Price history
+34.5% since first listed22 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-27 Price Changed $372,500 ARMLS
- 2026-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $1,220,390 Public Records
- 2026-03-20 Price Changed $375,000 ARMLS
- 2026-02-27 Price Changed $382,500 ARMLS
- 2026-01-23 Price Changed $390,000 ARMLS
- 2026-01-08 Listed $395,000 ARMLS
- 2025-10-24 Rental Removed $2,005 RENTLY
- 2025-10-04 Price Changed $2,005 RENTLY
- 2025-09-22 Listed for Rent $2,105 RENTLY
- 2025-09-21 Rental Removed $2,105 RENTLY
- 2025-09-17 Listed for Rent $2,105 RENTLY
- 2022-08-05 Price Changed $2,100 RENTLY
- 2022-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $1,600,500 Public Records
- 2021-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
- 2021-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
- 2013-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
- 2009-03-25 Sold (MLS) $114,900 ARMLS
- 2009-02-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2009-01-15 Listed $114,900 ARMLS
- 2008-02-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2007-11-14 Listed $170,000 ARMLS
- 2005-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $277,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+0.4%/yrLatest (2025): $1,542 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…