31406 Pratola Serra Cir · Plum Grove, TX 77336

$175,840

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kitson Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: KRJ Management association; Annual association fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Additional bedrooms on first floor; Total of 5 rooms (includes living/dining/family/bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen open to family room; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $175,840 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $237,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $176k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $176k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Falcon Ridge El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 689 students, 49% FRL); Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10244% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $170,564 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.43%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,490
• List price: $175,840
• Delta: -25.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31418 Pratola Serra Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	1mo	$189,990	$131	99
31406 Pratola Serra Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	1mo	$175,840	$121	99
31408 Pratola Serra Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	1mo	$183,990	$126	98
934 Capracotta Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	1mo	$244,990	$168	94
903 Coperchiata Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-3%)	1mo	$253,990	$180	90
939 Pertuso Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,531 (+6%)	1mo	$165,790	$108	77
933 Pertuso Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+6%)	1mo	$143,340	$93	76
929 Capracotta Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	1mo	$163,990	$99	69
905 Coperchiata Cir	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	1mo	$189,990	$115	66
914 Capracotta Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+14%)	1mo	$225,690	$136	65
31418 Casacalenda Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	1mo	$169,990	$103	62
31504 Olivella Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	1mo	$249,990	$192	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-53,965
• Equity at exit: $35,411

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-66,515
• Equity at exit: $20,534

Cash invested: $66,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,010 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,245
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,562/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,321

Max offer price $201,980

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,372
• Closing costs: $7,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	2d	1	0.04mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,840 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,840 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,840 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,840 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,840 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,840 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,840 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,840 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-05-07
   price $175,840 605-char remark
10. 2026-05-05
    listed $185,990 Active 605-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,303
• − Property taxes: −$3,562
• − Insurance: −$1,187
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,930
• − Management: −$1,930
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,909
• Taxable loss: −$7,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,681
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home presents as move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The exterior and interior are well-maintained, and updates to the exterior and flooring can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior stone siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes the space and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior stone siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes the space and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $175,840 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $185,990 HARMLS