921 Autumn Ln #243 · Bellingham, WA 98229

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1988 3,395 sqft lot Est $278k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bdr, 2-ba manufactured home located in the desirable Lake Samish Terrace, a peaceful 55+ community. The home offers a cozy and functional layout, perfect for those seeking comfort and tranquility. The community itself is a true gem, offering direct access to the stunning Lake Samish beachfront. Spend your days enjoying the waterfront with activities such as swimming, kayaking, and fishing right from the community dock. Whether you're looking to relax or explore the natural beauty of the area, this location provides the perfect retreat. Features include new composite deck for outdoor enjoyment, carport and additional storage space. This is more than j

Key facts

• Community dock
• Outdoor enjoyment
• New composite deck

Tags

• LAKE SAMISH BEACHFRONT
• COMMUNITY DOCK
• NEW COMPOSITE DECK
• OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Concrete perimeter, pillar/post/pier foundation with tie downs
• Financial info: Land lease: $850; Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Lake Samish Terrace Park (73 homes); Senior community; Park approved for sale; Community amenities: high-speed internet available, recreational area

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; RV parking available in park
• Utilities: Community water; PSE power; Comcast cable; Comcast internet
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Model: 88 KOZY; One level; Mobile home remains
• Construction: Cement plank construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cement planked exterior; Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped; Paved lot; Community waterfront / private beach access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 2 bathtubs
• Heating & cooling: Electric energy source
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Family room; Kitchen with eating space; Double pane windows; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Tie downs and manufactured-home utilities (per foundation details)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.0% in Bellingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#102 in WA, #1,947 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Bellingham School District (urban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.38%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,124
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
921 Autumn Ln #254	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-9%)	8mo	$202,500	$241	69
921 Autumn Ln #206	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	841 (-9%)	11mo	$253,000	$301	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,385
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $53,433
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98229

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $849/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,666

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
705 W Lake Samish Dr Unit 703A Bellingham, WA	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,495	$2.23	13d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $849 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,156 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,307/yr (+$109/mo · 154.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥83°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$849
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,309
• − Management: −$2,309
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $3,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$858
• After-tax cash flow: $6,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellingham School District
• NCES district ID: 5300420
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,678
• Composite: 48.49/100
• National rank: #4632
• State rank: #106 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bellingham

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #1947

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• City population: 130,296
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 33,298
• Household income: $90,945
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -652.00%
• Current HPI: 413.1478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $220,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $849 · +86.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.